Week 13 College Football Picks: Why Is Florida State Locked In At #2?

There is no debate about Alabama.

If the Crimson Tide win out, they will have wins over 3 teams that will be ranked in the final Top 25 poll (Texas A&M, Auburn and Missouri/South Carolina) and potentially a fourth, depending on LSU’s fate. Their non-conference schedule, while nothing to write home about, will feature wins over bowl teams Virginia Tech (possible ACC title game participant) and a surprisingly stout Colorado State team.

Of course, Alabama is not guaranteed to win out. When will we ever learn, right? But should they, the debate will not exist. An undefeated Alabama plays in Pasadena.

The BCS doomsday scenario, bandied about every year, seems plausible – if not likely – this year with Florida State, Ohio State and Baylor all extremely heavy favorites to finish undefeated. Baylor is favored by 9.5 this week over Oklahoma State and it should be the smallest point spread any of the three will have through Championship Saturday.

There is also the increasingly likely notion that Florida State will be in that title game by winning out, regardless of anyone else’s performance.

But why?

Florida State has been dominant this year. So has Baylor. So has Ohio State.

Florida State has crushed inferior opponents and yet to face stiff fourth quarter challenge. So has Baylor. So has Ohio State.

Depending on the fate of its ACC title game opponent – namely, if Duke can stay ranked – Florida State may go through a full season playing only one ranked team*. Baylor will almost certainly play two (Oklahoma, Oklahoma State). So will Ohio State (Wisconsin, Michigan State).

*Editor's note: I am discussing teams ranked in the final Top 25 polls. Sorry for the confusion.

From top to bottom, the ACC is every bit the mediocre mess that the Big Ten and Big 12 is. All three conferences have a surplus of teams that are incredibly average. Each conference has 3 ranked teams. Each conference has multiple putrid teams. Each conference is remarkably similar.

I understand, as we discuss this, that Florida State is #2 because their road win over Clemson far outweighs what the competitors have done. But Baylor plays on the road at Oklahoma State – wouldn’t that be comparable? What about Ohio State beating a potentially 11-1 Michigan State team?

Isn’t Baylor’s win over Oklahoma and Ohio State’s win over Wisconsin better than Florida State’s 2nd best win over…Miami? Duke? Virginia Tech?

In the end, we will likely be splitting hairs. Baylor, Ohio State and Florida State have all proved to be far superior to its competition. Their cupcake nonconference schedules revealed nothing and it’s another reason why a 13-game regular season would help, to give us more to dissect.

While this particular debate focuses on the last year of the BCS, it has more damaging effects for the doomed college football playoff. Can college football truly reach a place, like college basketball, where teams are judged for the entirety of their seasons? Where long disproved perceptions don’t carry more weight than they should? A world where Florida State’s win over Maryland isn’t still referred to as a win over a ranked opponent by ESPN?

Ohio State and Baylor deserve to have their resumes judged, in totality, against Florida State’s when the season is over.

The voters won’t do that. Florida State controls its own destiny. Even if that’s not fair. At least not yet…

Picks to Date: 70-60-2
Best Bet: 6-6
Upset Special: 7-5

Even when I’m right, I’m wrong. Last week, I said a Top 5 team would lose. I was right. But I dismissed Stanford’s chances and claimed Alabama would lose. Oops.

Northern Illinois (-2.5) over TOLEDO
I’m riding Northern Illinois until the bitter end. I’ve written about the unfair treatment NIU has received this year due to their perceived, yet factually incorrect, beatdown at the hands of Florida State in last year’s Orange Bowl.

At least, last week’s sublime performance by Jordan Lynch has kickstarted, or reignited, his Heisman campaign and he deserves, at the very least, a trip to New York. He has been the best player on the field every time he’s laced them up this year and that should continue this week.

That is not to say Toledo, by any means, is a pushover. Toledo spent about two hours last Tuesday night smacking Buffalo around something fierce before letting the Bulls make it reasonable late. Toledo is very good football team. I happen to believe Northern Illinois is a great team. In fact, many #MACtion fans believe this year’s NIU team is better than last year’s Orange Bowl team. If that’s true, they win this game.

Duke (-5.5) over WAKE FOREST
This line doesn’t seem to make sense, right? Duke just throttled Miami by nearly 3 touchdowns. Wake Forest seemed to have life about a month ago after whipping Maryland and taking Maryland to the limit. Then they laid a disgusting, horrific egg at Syracuse – you can’t get shutout by the Orange – and then took the ACC-mandated beating in Tallahassee.

The line tells you two things. First, Vegas thinks Wake Forest is a lot better than most average fans would. And second, Vegas does not trust Duke in a favorite’s role despite wins over Virginia Tech on the road and Miami.

For me, I love Duke’s attack and their style. They should zero fear in the game last week against Miami. When they played Virginia Tech, they played atrociously – turnovers on turnovers on turnovers. They should have lost that game to the Hokies, but they pulled it out late.

To me, the mark of a good team is one that can win while not playing their best. Duke wasn’t at their best when they beat Virginia Tech. They were at their best when they beat Miami. They may not be at their best against Wake Forest. But I don’t think they have to be.

Besides, it would seem fitting in a year that has Florida State pre-ordained for the BCS Title Game, that its ACC opponent is decided by the basketball rivalry known as Carolina-Duke.

NORTHWESTERN (+7) over Michigan State
I could not have been more right about Michigan State against Michigan. I could not have been wrong about Michigan State against Nebraska.

Northwestern should be done. They’ve lost 6 in a row since giving Ohio State a game in a game that felt like it happened in 2009. They’ve lost in every heartbreaking fashion possible, from overtimes to Iowa, a miracle Hail Mary to Nebraska and a ridiculous, “how did that happen?” field goal to Michigan.

This pick is basically a hat tip to Pat Fitzgerald, who has his team fighting every week despite loss after loss after loss piling up. For Michigan State, this game may not matter – if Minnesota loses to Wisconsin, Michigan State clinches its division. Even if Minnesota wins, they’d still have to beat Michigan State in East Lansing next week to prevent Sparty for the Big Ten title game.

I’m not saying Michigan State is going to take a dive. I’m saying that they lack the necessary urgency to put Northwestern away early. Northwestern is playing for a season – at 4-6, they need to win this game and the finale against hapless Illinois to secure a bowl berth. Northwestern will be playing, as the Sports Guy calls it, a “kitchen sink game” in which they do everything and anything necessary to win. Maybe they don’t pull it out, but it’ll be a close one.

HOUSTON (-3.5) over Cincinnati
Two weeks and two heartbreaking one-score losses on the road for Houston against UCF and Louisville. That’s rough. Meanwhile, Cincinnati is coming off of a remarkable thrashing of a bowl-bound Rutgers team on the road.

So why am I picking Houston? Because, like with Northwestern, I feel like the losses create a renewed sense of urgency for Houston. They have a lot to play for – a win over Cincinnati could ensure a Belk Bowl berth in Charlotte and a matchup with a notable ACC team on a Saturday afternoon on ESPN. For a maturing program like Houston’s, one that had a noticeable speed bump last year, that’s significant.

Cincinnati, of course, still has BCS dreams but the lack of a UCF game – great work, Mike Aresco – has the Bearcats needed too much help. I also can’t shake the fact that Cincinnati is 8-2 yet lost to Illinois and South Florida, two of the worst BCS conference teams in the country. Houston doesn’t have a bad loss. Cincinnati has two.

Memphis (+24.5) over LOUISVILLE
To say Louisville has been sleepwalking through games after its meltdown versus UCF is to be doing a disservice to the actual effort put forth by people sleepwalking. I don’t blame Louisville players – they have just about nothing to play for. UCF is almost certainly not losing twice. Louisville holds only the remotest of remote chances of a BCS at-large berth. Teddy Bridgewater isn’t even going to get an invite to NYC for the Heisman ceremony. They are far superior to this opponent – so why try?

Memphis, on the other hand, has been playing their butts off and stand at respectable 3-6. In October, they lost to UCF by 7, Houston by 10 and Cincinnati by 13. They also played Duke close in the season opener back when they didn’t mean anything. I can guarantee you the Memphis staff wakes up in cold sweats about the 17-15 loss to Middle Tennessee that is likely the difference between Memphis and a bowl berth. Because with Temple and UConn up next, it will be that loss that prevents it from happening – unless they pull off the enormous shocker here.

I don’t think they will, but I bet it’s a game at a halftime.

MINNESOTA (+16) over Wisconsin
There is nothing that annoys me more is rehashing the ending of the Wisconsin/Arizona State game and that Wisconsin would have won if not for the referees. Did the refs botch the sequence? Yes. But so did Wisconsin – who in the hell takes a knee with no timeouts, 18 seconds left and down 2 points? That’s bad coaching. And there’s no guarantee that Wisconsin makes that kick. As much flak as the truly terrible Pac-12 officials have gotten for the fiasco, Wisconsin deserves just as much blame because they got too cute and got burnt.

With that rant out of the way, I’m not betting against Minnesota at home. Neither team has beaten anyone really good this year and both have been pretty effective running over opponents. Depending on the result of the earlier Michigan State game, Minnesota’s Rose Bowl hopes (!!) may still be alive. As with Memphis, I can’t see Minnesota getting blown on in its biggest game since…

Michigan 2003? I can’t think of one significant Minnesota game other than that meltdown.

Texas A&M (+4.5) over LSU
Well, I’m already on the record saying Johnny Football is going to win the Heisman, so they have to win here, right? I’m predicting a huge effort from A&M against an LSU defense that is so bad this year they briefly turn A.J. McCarron into a Heisman candidate. I love McCarron as a QB but, come on, he’s not even the best player in his backfield – hello, T.J. Yeldon.

The SEC on CBS game has been incredible this year – more exposure the Big Ten is sorely lacking – and I don’t expect this to be any different. I’m thinking another 49-42ish final score and Johnny Football to put up about 400 yards and 6 touchdowns.

Oregon (-20.5) over ARIZONA *Best Bet*
Arizona stinks. Oregon just got a reprieve and controls its destiny again for the Rose Bowl. This won’t be pretty.

NOTRE DAME (+1) over Byu
Yep, things have gotten so bad for Notre Dame that they are now underdogs to a BYU team that has 3 losses. Everett Golson being ineligible this year is actually a bigger story than previously thought. This isn’t a vintage Notre Dame team – i.e., like last year’s – but it’s not terrible either. Except for the turnover machine known as Tommy Rees. If not for Rees, Notre Dame definitely wins last week against Pittsburgh. If not for Rees, Notre Dame doesn’t fall down 14-0 to Oklahoma in a heartbeat. And if not for Rees, Notre Dame doesn’t spend the entire second half against Michigan playing catchup.

Rees has been awful. But I still think he goes out a winner. The bye last week gave Brian Kelly two weeks for his face to turn red and he ripped his team a new one.

Arizona State (-2.5) over UCLA
The emergence of Myles Jack has sort of obscured the fact that UCLA has not been playing very good football lately. They had no chance against Stanford and were wiped of the field by Oregon in the second half. They struggled mightily to defeat a very average Arizona team before winning a sloppy, turnover-plagued game against Washington.

Arizona State hasn’t lost since going down to Notre Dame in JerryWorld and, with the exception of the Pac-12-mandated struggle against Utah in Salt Lake City, they have been dominating opponents. A win here sends the Sun Devils to the Pac-12 title game. I say they get the job done on the road.

OKLAHOMA STATE (+9.5) over Baylor *Upset Special*
Remember what I wrote to begin this piece? Ignore the Baylor parts. They’re losing Saturday night. And it’s really not that much of an upset, but Baylor has reached Oregon-level respect from Vegas.

Oklahoma State is way better than you think, because you probably only watched them once against West Virginia, when they laid a terrible egg. Seriously, their performance in Morgantown may have been the worst effort by a top team all year, unless you consider Notre Dame a top team and their fiasco against Pittsburgh. Oklahoma State was far superior to West Virginia that day but a combination of turnovers and mental lapses cost them that game.

In the end, it might have been for the best. Oklahoma State has flown way under the radar, with their two biggest games against Texas Tech and Texas airing on Fox opposite better games. As an example – did anyone pay attention to their destruction of Texas while Auburn and Georgia were playing one of the greatest games ever played?

I’ve paid attention, at least a bit, and I’ve seen Oklahoma State dominate Texas Tech and Texas, on the road. They get Baylor at home. They get a national spotlight. You will be watching Saturday night. And you’ll see Baylor’s BCS title dreams go down in flames.

Follow me on Twitter