Over the summer, we all make predictions about the upcoming
college football season. Here were mine. And then by December, we never take time to look back.
How bad were those predictions? Why were they so bad? What
if I was actually right about something?
So for fun before the holidays and the upcoming
bowl season, let’s review my predictions. And we should start with the one
that garnered the most preseason attention.
Yep, mea culpa time.
Louisville Will Lose
At Least 4 Games in 2013
I was wrong. They didn’t lose that many games. In fact, they
only lost once. It wasn’t the season Louisville fans wanted. And I suspect most
are already thinking about the Kentucky game on Dec. 28 instead of the Russell
Athletic Bowl. But that doesn’t change the fact I was wrong.
Why I was wrong? Two reasons.
First, Teddy Bridgewater was better than I thought. I knew
Teddy was good. I didn’t realize he was that
good.
There is a huge difference in college football when one team
has a future starting NFL QB and the other team, well it doesn’t. The best
recent example is TCU and Andy Dalton. While he was in college, everyone knew
Dalton was good. It wasn’t until he left that we realized just how good he was.
He’s now a playoff quarterback in the NFL, he won a Rose Bowl at TCU – read that
last part again, a Rose Bowl, at TCU – and since he left, TCU has basically
fallen apart.
In fact, the only game Louisville did lose was to a UCF team
that has
its own potential starting NFL QB on the roster.
It took me a while to realize how good Bridgewater was until
the finale against Cincinnati, in the team’s only difficult road game. Without
Bridgewater and his
tremendous performance, they lose that game. That’s not even a question. He
was the difference. If they lose that game and finish 10-2, I feel a bit better
about my prediction and can blame it on reason #2. Instead, I have to give
Teddy his props and hope like hell he ends up as my Jets quarterback next year.
As a bonus 2014 bold prediction, if Teddy Bridgewater does
decide to come back, Louisville will make
the four-team college football playoff. Write it down.
The second reason, which I did not take into account, was
how putrid the bottom half of the
American Athletic Conference would be and how easy Louisville’s schedule
would be.
The conference had four good teams. Cincinnati and Houston
are fringe Top 25 teams. UCF and Louisville are Top 10-15 teams. That’s it. The
other 6 teams, even including bowl-bound Rutgers, are hot, steaming garbage. I
thought teams like USF and UConn would be 5-7, 6-6 bad…they were historically
awful.
The road schedule Louisville played up until the Cincinnati
game may be the most comical in major college football history. At Kentucky,
Temple, USF and UConn – those four had a combined record of 9 wins, 39 losses.
Good Lord. UConn at 3-9 was the toughest
road game Louisville played before Cincinnati and UConn was winless at the time.
So to all the Louisville fans that wrote horrible things
about me…you were right, I was wrong. Happy now?
Alabama will not win
the National Championship
Alright, I got one right! Though to be fair, I did say that
I thought they would make the BCS title game and lose it in the National Title
game, and even compared them to the 2002 Miami and 2005 USC teams that lost in
all-time classics in the title games.
So their season sort of played out like I predicted, I
just had no idea – like everyone else in the world – that the all-time classic
would take place in the Iron Bowl against Auburn.
Georgia will
annihilate Clemson in Week 1
Oops. To be fair, when Todd Gurley busted out for his huge touchdown run early
against Clemson, I thought I was right. But that run doubled as the very
last moment Georgia would be healthy in 2013. Gurley battled injuries. Wide
receivers went down like MASH unit each week. And eventually, it even nabbed
Aaron Murray.
We’ll revisit Georgia later, but I really believe if Gurley
plays all 60 minutes, they do annihilate Clemson because Clemson couldn’t stop
him. And kudos to Clemson, they showed up and weren’t afraid of Georgia. I was
envisioning they would put on the performance they eventually did against
Florida State, which is to say essentially wetting themselves on broadcast
television.
Boise State will lose
to Washington in Week 1
This was too easy. Boise State was down. Washington was up
and the opening of a new Husky Stadium was going to be too much. I mean, I didn’t
see a total destruction coming like it was – this game basically ended the
Chris Petersen era in Boise – but I was right.
An American Athletic
Conference team will be in the National Title hunt in November
So, not exactly. Though in my initial post, I mentioned that
UCF had the best chance because of the schedule through October – road games at
Penn State and Louisville and South Carolina at home. And the
three-point loss to South Carolina ruined it. I want to take another
opportunity to point out how absurd UCF’s current ranking is. If South Carolina
is #9, how is UCF, with a better record, not #10? Let’s move on.
Ohio State will play
Michigan twice
Ohio State will lose to Michigan once
It will cost them a spot in the title game
Ohio State will lose to Michigan once
It will cost them a spot in the title game
Technically, I got the last of these three predictions right
since the scenario I laid out – an undefeated Ohio State team losing in the Big
Ten championship game to lose a BCS title spot – did happen. I just had the wrong state school from Michigan. Nothing I would change about that, even through the first two
weeks of the season. Michigan looked awesome in beating Notre Dame – Michigan State
looked putrid on offense in losing to Notre Dame. You live, you learn, you keep
giving Michigan too much credit.
Baylor will win the
Big 12
I’m going to quote myself because I absolutely nailed this
one:
“The Big 12 is not going to have a banner year. No other
conference was hurt more by players graduating or leaving early. Texas seems to
be perpetually down. Kansas State won’t play back to last year’s level.
Oklahoma, well, they just seem off. It opens up a bit of a power vacuum for
this year and no team is more poised to claim it than Baylor.”
There will be no BCS
Buster
It took through the last Friday of the regular season, but
this turned out to be correct. There were no non-BCS schools that appeared to
be at the level of, say, a 2008 Utah or 2010 TCU. However, Fresno State did
appear it could pull off a 2007 Hawaii-type run until San Jose State ended
that. I did not see how good Northern Illinois would be, and that’s partly why
I would’ve voted
Jordan Lynch for Heisman with Jameis Winston as #2. NIU is a one-man team
and Lynch almost pulled off the unthinkable all by himself.
Texas A&M will
lose at least 3 games
This was too easy. They lost a lot of talent from 2012 and
everyone knew the defense was going to be awful. Johnny
Football single-handedly kept this team in games against Auburn and Alabama
they had no business, in retrospect, of even being close in. Once Johnny
Football hit a bit of a down patch late, against LSU and Missouri, the team
fell apart.
Another bold prediction for 2014: Texas A&M is going to
be bad next year if Manziel goes pro.
This will be Mack
Brown’s last year at Texas
“Another offseason of hype will lead to another early season
disappointment. “
“The Texas job search will be the main off-the-field
storyline through the bowl season.”
Some things are so obvious, you know? I lose a point for
predicting Texas to end up in the Holiday Bowl, which would have happened if
Oklahoma hadn’t made the BCS. I also said the resignation would not turn into
an ugly Bobby Bowden-type fiasco, but it was somehow
even uglier with the Nick Saban leaks and the chaos going on at the
university.
Jadeveon Clowney will
win the Heisman Trophy
I should’ve realized he never had a chance. I thought the
offseason hype would help him. Instead, it just focused a microscope on
everything he did. And defensive ends are a lot like baseball hitters – they fail
more than they succeed. A hitter can strike out 7 out of 10 times and still go
to the Hall of Fame. Well, Clowney can get 2 sacks on 70 plays and be the best
player in football.
The real problem is that defensive line might be the easiest
position to neutralize. Yeah, it may take three guys, but you can eliminate
Clowney and focus on the other 10 guys. South Carolina is #9 in large part
because of Clowney’s presence. He will be much better in the NFL when
triple-teams can’t happen.
I severely underestimated the loss of Everett Golson and how
bad Tommy Rees is at preventing turnovers. Let’s move on.
The ACC will not have
a national contender by October 1
Great job buddy. They actually had three at the time. I even
predicted Pitt to beat Florida State. I’m really stupid sometimes.
Pitt and Syracuse
will both win at least 8 games
Clearly, I was high when I wrote this.
Army will beat Navy
I thought Army’s heart-breaking loss to Navy would be a
launching pad to a big 2013 for Army, thinking they would use that game as
motivation and evidence they were closing the gap with Navy. Except for an inspired
first half at home against Stanford, Army was really bad this year while Navy
more or less returned to form. The next Army head coach will be an interesting
hire to watch – there’s no reason why Navy can win 7 or 8 games every year but
Army can’t.
Penn State will not
have a winning record
Close but not quite, as the surprising season-ending victory
on the road against Wisconsin got Penn State to 7-5. They also scored big wins
against Syracuse and Michigan that I didn’t think they’d get – especially the
Syracuse game, since it was the opener with a true freshman QB. All the credit
in the world to Bill O’Brien on this one.
USC will win the
Pac-12 and play in the Rose Bowl
Not only was this insanely stupid, I doubled down by writing
an entire post explaining why
USC would be back in 2013. I was sort of right, as Coach O’s run proved,
because there was enough talent there for USC to win the Pac-12. But the lack
of depth caught up with them. Also, I had zero idea how bad things had gotten
under Kiffin.
2 SEC teams will play
in the National Title game
Georgia will win the National Championship
Georgia will win the National Championship
Well I was almost right on the first part, and would have
been if Duke
had done the unimaginable on Championship Saturday. But they didn’t, and I
was wrong. I may save that prediction for next year when a four-team playoff
makes that scenario far more likely.
As for Georgia, what can I say? Despite the loss to Clemson,
I felt good about this prediction through September after wins against LSU and
South Carolina. But the injuries piled, they didn’t take Missouri seriously and
it all fell apart.
So, I made 21 bold predictions and I got 7 right. A .333
batting average? I’d be the best hitter on the Mets!
Follow me on Twitter
Good to see you admit youre an idito. Dumbass.
ReplyDeleteThe Syracuse/Pitt prediction made me laugh.
ReplyDeleteYou are the dumbest motherfucker on the planet.
ReplyDeleteYour hate for the ACC because we didn't accept UCONN is glaringly obvious in your predictions.
ReplyDelete