Across the two major college sports – football and
basketball – TCU has won 2 Big 12 conference games this season.
Two, that’s it. They went 2-7 in football. They are
currently 0-16 in basketball. It makes you wonder if the folks at the Big 12
offices are going around asking themselves, “Why the hell did we invite TCU?”
At this point, there isn’t a good answer and if the Big 12
suffers the same fate as the Big East over the next five to ten years, the obituaries
will start with the Big 12’s needless inclusion of TCU.
I know what you’re thinking – conference realignment has
nothing to do with wins and losses. That is absolutely correct. That’s why the AAC
added Tulane and will look at big markets when they get to 12 basketball
teams. It’s why Rutgers hasn’t won anything of consequence in a century of
playing sports but got a golden
Big Ten ticket.
And that is exactly why the Big 12 should not have invited
TCU – they brought nothing to the table except wins in football.
Have I mentioned yet that the Big 12 could have added
Cincinnati and/or Louisville instead of TCU? Which would be better for the
conference, programs in major metro markets with Top 10 basketball programs and
Top 25 football teams, or TCU?
The recent history of the Big 12 is defined what could have
been, and how it stayed together. Remember, there was a time in the
not-so-distant past in which Baylor, pre-RG3, and Iowa State were offering
themselves to the Big East. There was also the very real possibility that
Texas, Oklahoma and friends would head west to
form the Pac-16 and lock up the entire Western half of the United States.
But in the extended game of risk that was conference
realignment, neither option came to fruition. The Big 12 lost Missouri, Texas
A&M, Nebraska and Colorado to three different conferences.
Stuck now with 8 teams, the Big 12 had to act as Texas
signed its massive Longhorn Network/ESPN deal to keep itself happy and Oklahoma
is going to do whatever Texas is going to do. The other 6 teams, particularly
Texas Tech, Baylor and Oklahoma State, exist as leeches on the Red River
Rivals. This is not to disparage – being tied to Texas and Oklahoma is good
business – but to explain the situation.
So at 8 teams, what did the Big 12 do? With the
Big East crumbling, the Big 12 could have had their pick and had U.S.
Senators engaged in political warfare to determine if the league would add
Louisville or West Virginia. Or? Why not and?
Cincinnati, as they have
made crystal clear over and over, would jump at a Big 12 invite in less
than a heartbeat. Think about a conference that could trot out Louisville,
Cincinnati and West Virginia – inarguably the three strongest Big East football
programs from 2005 to 2011 – in addition to Texas, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State?
Do you think Kansas and Iowa State, both potential NCAA
Tournament champions, would rather enjoy an RPI-killing duo of games against
TCU as opposed to a trio of games against former Big East powers?
Think about it this way – the Big 12 essentially chose TCU
over Louisville. That sound you hear in the background is ACC commissioner John
Swofford cackling in delight.
Conference realignment is about markets, though, and TCU
does play in the shadow of Dallas, Texas. This should mean something, except
for the fact that the Big 12 already owned Dallas because it has Texas. It owns
every city in Texas except for College Station because it has Texas. Adding TCU
provided little to no benefits in terms of markets or the financial bottom
line.
TCU was invited to join the Big 12 in
October 2011 for two reasons – Texas and the 2011 Rose Bowl. Once Texas
decided against the Pac-16 and a flirtation with independence, it needed to
keep the Big 12 together. By adding TCU, they essentially added another home
game every other year – giving coaches a chance to show over for Metroplex high
schoolers in person without forcing them to come to Austin. Also, it’s TCU. Texas
has been dominating TCU in football since before you were born. Why does Rice
play Texas? Why does TCU play Texas?
The 2011 Rose Bowl victory by TCU gave the Big 12 a legit,
football reason for joining the conference. The TCU football program has been a
mirage for the past decade. Now that it has joined the Big 12, that foundation
is being rocked.
When it comes to success in college football, rarely do
teams stray from their mean for too long – unless you have Phil Knight writing
checks for you on a daily basis. There is a class system in college football
that is not going to change and will likely only get worse as the money thrown
around increases.
This is not to say a school like TCU or Purdue or Washington
State can’t rise up every now and then to compete nationally, but that success
is fleeting and almost always comes with a once-in-a-generation quarterback.
Purdue played in a Rose Bowl with Drew Brees. Washington
State played in one with Ryan Leaf. Nevada was a Top 15 team with Colin
Kaepernick. And TCU won a Rose Bowl because it had Andy Dalton.
While Dalton never got the respect he fully deserved in
college, his pro success has confirmed what he meant to the TCU program. Simply
put, TCU is not going to win another Rose Bowl in the next 25 years unless they
find another Andy Dalton.
TCU started this past college football season ranked for
reasons I have yet to grasp, coming off of a 6-7 2012 season. They were
outclassed by LSU in the opener and limped to a 4-8 season. They continued to
garner far too much respect from people who thought they should be good and
were an even more atrocious 4-8 versus the spread
in 2013 – a fact I exploited
multiple times during the season.
I don’t need to go into detail about the basketball, except
to say that TCU is by far the worst team playing in a major conference and
maybe one of the worst in recent history – they are DePaul-like bad, without
the benefit of playing in Chicago.
The Big 12 is in no danger of falling apart, yet. But much
like the Big
East felt safe before it was picked apart, the Big 12 is now a clear #5 on
the pecking order of major conferences. And much has to do with its inclusion
of TCU – a mid-major in every sense of the word – into the fold.
When the next round of conference realignment starts – and
have no doubt, there will be another round – the Big 12 will be targeted. Texas
and Oklahoma will be wooed and will eventually leave because the grass will be
greener on the other side.
If the Big 12 had any forethought at all, if the Big 12 had
Louisville and Cincinnati in the fold, if the Big 12 had not acquiesced to
Texas, the league would be on equal footing with the other four major
conferences.
Instead, they are not. The clock is ticking on the Big 12 even
if they don’t know it yet. As a UConn fan, I witnessed the destruction of the
Big East and understand what “pride before the fall” means.
Don’t worry TCU – there’s always a spot in the
AAC for you.
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The big12 is a joke really.
ReplyDeleteFour of TCU's 7 conference losses were by 3 points or less (OU, Baylor, K-State, West Virginia). Close games can go either way. The Frogs just ended up on the short end of the stick for most of these games in 2013. You're making it sound like they got lambasted the whole season, which is a wholly inaccurate portrayal. RPI showed the Frogs above the fold in 2013, in the low-to-mid 50s, but you obviously can't go to a bowl with less than 6 wins, unless you win the old Sun Belt outright. (i.e., North Texas, 5-6, 2001).
ReplyDeleteWho won the Big 12 in baseball? Oh yea, TCU!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteAre you still holding true to this comment now?
ReplyDeleteI have been proven very, very wrong.
DeleteObviously! You do not have a clue!
DeleteHindsight rules. Oh, and don't forget Jason Gesser.
ReplyDelete