We like to hate a lot more than we like to like.
We see it every day. On message boards and on Twitter – the
trolls get far more responses than those providing common sense. Being the
object of derision trumps being the object of affection. You want people to
dislike you. You want haters to hate so you can watch the money pile up, and so
on and so forth.
As an admitted and recovering pro wrestling fan, I’ve
learned this lesson many times over. Hulk Hogan needed an evil adversary like “Macho
Man” Randy Savage. Stone Cold Steve Austin needed to overcome the heinous acts
of Vince McMahon. It was good vs evil every week and those who were evil were
always – I repeat, always – more
interesting.
When it comes to college football, no one draws more
attention than Notre Dame. Yet the beauty of Notre Dame’s hold on the general
public is that they must be good.
Between the time Lou Holtz left and Brian Kelly arrived, the
moments when Notre Dame mattered were few and far between. With the notable
exception of the first two Charlie Weis years, there was about 15 years of emptiness.
People wanted to hate Notre Dame, but if they lose every week, what’s the
point?
The arrival of Brian Kelly and the 2012 undefeated run
reminded us why NBC gladly forks over millions to Notre Dame and why ESPN added
extra zeros to the ACC contract for only a couple games a year. Because when
Notre Dame is good, people come out of the woodwork to root against them.
The 2012 season finale for Notre Dame against an unranked
USC team destroyed
the ratings of every other regular season game that season. It’s amazing
how Notre Dame’s ratings stay nearly the same until they start winning, and
then the ratings soar as college football fans remember they hate the Irish.
That’s why there will be such an interesting dynamic in play
on Saturday night. Few can root for Notre Dame. Yet how many can truly root for
Florida State right now, awash in more Jameis Winston controversy?
For the first time since Catholics vs. Convicts a
quarter-century ago, a majority of neutral observers may actually be rooting
for Notre Dame. That can’t be true, can it?
Overall Record: 37-39-1
Best Bet: 2-5
Upset Special: 4-2-1
Best Bet: 2-5
Upset Special: 4-2-1
The less said about my
Best Bet picks the better. Crushed about my Upset Special last
week, as Washington State came in right at the number I got. If I had made
my picks a day earlier, they would’ve covered. If I had waited a day, they
would’ve lost. Oh sports gambling, what a fickle fiend you are.
Virginia Tech (+1)
over PITTSBURGH
Pitt hasn’t won a game in a month. They lost at home to Iowa
(excusable) and Akron (inexcusable). Their last game was a road loss to
Virginia.
Virginia Tech beat Ohio State in Columbus. I have no idea
why Pitt is favored as they prepare to play at home in an empty Heinz Field on
Thursday night.
OREGON STATE (+2)
over Utah
There’s no way I’m passing up getting points for Oregon
State at home. Everything points to Utah winning this game. They beat UCLA on
the road. They’re ranked. They’re improving. Oregon State has played one real
team in USC and got smacked around by said real team.
But this is a typical Oregon State game. They win at least
one of these a year, when they are home underdogs to a ranked team and come
through in a big way. I can’t shake the feeling that Utah’s win over UCLA was a
lot less impressive than first thought – like UCLA might just stink.
Temple (+7.5) over
HOUSTON
This is a spiteful pick for Houston playing their best game
of the year by an order of magnitude to beat Memphis in Memphis. How dare you
Houston!
Is it possible that Temple might be good? They haven’t
played anyone with a pulse except for Navy and they lost to Navy by a
touchdown. Still, Temple is 4-1 and – I swear this is true – they would play in
a New Year’s Day bowl game if they won out. That’s putting about 15 carts in
front of the poor horse but a win over Houston would make next week’s
Temple/UCF game mean a lot in the AAC race. Who wouldn’t love that?
OKLAHOMA (-7.5) over
Kansas State
Two weeks ago, I went all in on Oklahoma and said there was no
possible way they would lose to TCU. They lost. I’m going to double down
here because Oklahoma should be the Big 12’s best team.
I watched Kansas State play Iowa State and Auburn and left
thoroughly unimpressed with both performances. They should’ve lost to Iowa
State and should’ve lost to Auburn by about 28 if Nick Marshall threw an
accurate deep ball. I don’t think this one will close.
Baylor (-8) over WEST
VIRGINIA
This game feels like such a trap/letdown game that it can’t
be. If everyone is saying it’s a trap, then the effectiveness of the trap is
severely diminished. West Virginia is a fascinating team that could be 5-1 or
2-4, with two wins on last second field goals and a slugfest loss to Alabama.
I could see this game playing out similar to Oklahoma’s
visit to Morgantown, where the teams match scores for three quarters before the
Mountaineers run out of gas. That’s when Baylor scores 3 touchdowns in 28
seconds to put things away.
DUKE (-2.5) over
Virginia
Virginia has have covered every time out and have helped my
win-loss record on several occasions. So why am I bailing now? I just don’t see
Virginia winning at Duke. In fact, I think Duke is probably the second best
team in the ACC and they will spend the rest of the year bemoaning their bad
loss to Miami.
OHIO STATE (-19.5)
over Rutgers *Best Bet*
If J.T. Barrett was the starter from April and got reps
through spring and summer, then Ohio State would be undefeated. The Virginia
Tech loss was not pretty but people were acting like the Ohio State QB was some
schlub they found of the street. No, Barrett was a
four-star recruit who was one of the top dual-threat QBs in his class.
Once Barrett figured out – and the offensive line fixed
their issues – the Buckeyes have been absolutely lights out. I thought Maryland
was going to give Ohio State a test and they got decimated. Rutgers deserves credit
for starting 5-1 but they haven’t beaten a team with a winning record yet, much
like they did last year en route to going 6-6.
Rutgers is not beating Ohio State in the Horseshoe. In fact,
I don’t know if they ever will. This one could get ugly because the Big Ten
team that will be a playoff contender is Ohio State.
ALABAMA (-11.5) over
Texas A&M
This feels like a bad spot for Texas A&M. Alabama and
Nick Saban are pretty obviously pissed off. They aren’t happy with anything
right now. And the last time Texas A&M came to town, the Johnny Football
legend took off. Everything seems to be coming together for a bad A&M
beatdown. Suddenly, my diatribe about the Aggies descending
back to mediocrity is making sense again.
Oklahoma State (+8.5)
over TCU
I have picked games involving these teams four times and I
am 0-4. That would cause a sane person to say, “You know what, maybe I’ll sit
this one out.” Me? Never!
My angle? TCU is worn out from two incredible games against
Oklahoma and Baylor. Frankly, they were done after three quarters against
Baylor – the tank was on empty. Oklahoma State beat Kansas last week wearing
pajamas as they were already looking ahead. The schedule trips up TCU more than
the Cowpokes, but Oklahoma State is a solid Top 20 team that cannot be
overlooked. Ask Florida State.
Nebraska (-7) over
NORTHWESTERN
I don’t think Nebraska is back
from irrelevance quite yet but I do know that Northwestern is bad. The fact
that they beat Wisconsin will remain one of the sport’s great mysteries all
year long.
Do you know Nebraska should be 8-1 by the time they play
Wisconsin? The Big Ten West is so brutally bad that Nebraska may play only one ranked team all year.
LSU (-9.5) over
Kentucky
I’m going to be the party pooper here. Kentucky hasn’t beaten
a team with a winning record yet. It is 5-1 with 5 home wins – nice scheduling!
They were losing by 14 to South Carolina with 12 minutes to go before the
Gamecocks inexplicably imploded and lost in regulation. I am impressed that
Kentucky is 5-1 but I am not impressed enough to think they are going to Death
Valley, at night, to beat LSU.
Look, LSU may be a 7-5, 8-4 type team this year but it will
still take a great team to give them fits at home at night. I don’t think
Kentucky is that team, yet. I think it’s far more reasonable to see Kentucky
upsetting Mississippi State at home next week.
Notre Dame (+12) over
FLORIDA STATE *Upset Special*
I love Notre Dame in this spot. And no, it’s not just
because I picked them to make
the playoff in April. It’s just a perfect matchup. Let’s count the ways:
1) The bend & don’t break defense that Notre Dame
employs is perfectly suited to stop Florida State. They can get bogged down in
the red zone but make up for that with big plays – see the Oklahoma State game.
If ND can avoid giving up the big play, they can slow the game down.
2) The Florida State defensive line is not what it was last
year. And that’s good because Notre Dame’s biggest weakness is the offensive
line. Did you see what Stanford was able to do to Everett Golson? Without
pressure, Golson can rip a defense apart. Florida State is vulnerable.
3) Florida State can’t run the ball. Notre Dame can stop the
run. Making Florida State one-dimensional is the only way to slow them down.
4) The turnovers have to stop, right? Notre Dame has been
awful with the football and still winning games. That’s a sign of a really good
team that has not reached its potential yet.
5) Notre Dame has way more motivation in this game. It is
essentially their
moment. Ever since Alabama, they have been waiting for this game on this
stage with this quarterback to prove they are an elite, national title-level
program again. This is it. They’re playing with house money in a game no one
thinks they have a chance in heck to win. C’mon…they make movies about these
scenarios you guys.
Stanford (-3) over
ARIZONA STATE
I hate this pick already. I don’t know why I insist on
picking Stanford games but they seem to play big games. Stanford annihilated
Arizona State twice last year. For some reason, the matchup is weighed heavily
in the Cardinal’s favor. So much so that not even David Shaw can mess it up.Follow me on Twitter
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