This year, the
AAC should have six bowl teams. Last year, they had only 4.
Last year, the
AAC had four of the absolute worst teams FBS had to offer. This year, they have
only 1.
That's good
right? Nope, it's horrible. The parity that Roger Goodell fantasizes about is
now keeping Mike Aresco up at night.
In 2013, the AAC
was comically top-heavy in football. UCF and Louisville, each led by first
round NFL quarterbacks, combined to go 24-2 and finished in the Top 15. It was a resounding
success for the AAC's perception and undeniably crucial as the league's
automatic bid to a major bowl game disappeared.
As this year
started, the AAC champion seemed
to be the front-runner for the Group of Five's new automatic bid to a major
bowl for the top-ranked champion. Even back in August, the rumblings about
Marshall's weak schedule had begun and the Mountain West appeared void of a top
contender with Boise State expected to take a step back.
In short,
everything was in place for the AAC to place its champion in the Peach Bowl and
remain the best non-power league. That's when parity struck the AAC. That's why
the league will likely be on the outside looking in.
The first Top 25
from the selection committee revealed the AAC’s respect as East Carolina with
two ACC wins – even over poor ACC teams – was the only Group of Five team in
the rankings. Remarkably, they remain the only Group of Five team to be
ranked, further indication of the committee’s respect.
Unfortunately for
East Carolina, the ACC competition proved a lot easier than the AAC
competition. They lost to a vastly improved Temple team in the rain. They went
down to Cincinnati. It is not even first in the league.
UCF is currently
tied for first. They lost to UConn. They struggled mightily to beat Tulane at
home by 7.
There's two ways
to look at the parity that has overtaken the league: the teams at the top
aren't very good or the teams at the bottom aren’t that bad. It's likely a
combination of both. Regardless, the league has produced far more close games
and surprising results than it did a year ago.
While the focus
last year was on UCF and Louisville, Houston and Cincinnati cruised to 8- and
9-win seasons respectively by feasting on bottom feeders. In the bowl season,
the teams were exposed by power conference foes in Vanderbilt and North
Carolina – not exactly Alabama and Florida State – in bowl games. They had been
artificially propped up.
That isn't
happening in 2014. That's why there's currently a three-way tie for the
conference lead and four other teams with three conference wins.
The most
unfortunate part of this new-found parity is the terrible, terrible timing.
Last year, it didn't matter how good the league performed. Someone was playing
in the Fiesta Bowl whether ESPN, fans or the media liked. UCF was a worthy team
and proved so by dispatching previously-heralded Baylor.
Yet this is the
year that the conference needed a Top 15 team led by an NFL quarterback. This
is the year the AAC is forced to prove its worth and earn that bowl bid. East
Carolina appeared to be that hope, but they failed once they realized the AAC
conference slate is a lot harder than it is in Conference USA – just ask undefeated
Marshall.
The conference is
still getting respect, as a three-loss
Memphis team was cited by selection committee chair as being under
consideration for the Group of Five bid. Memphis, though, has no marquee games
left and don't you think Aresco wishes Memphis played East Carolina and/or UCF.
It's not a lost
season for the conference. The bottom half of the conference had to improve to
prevent a Marshall-like scenario. Temple has gone from terrible to 5-5 and
should be bowl-eligible. South Florida has improved as well, now 4-6 and
finally showing signs of life. The aforementioned Memphis is one of the best
turnaround stories in the sport. And while UConn is still leaving a lot to be
desired, they have trotted out promising freshmen and have a young coach in
place with potential.
There is no doubt
that the AAC is a much, much better league from top to bottom in 2014. And
that's the problem.
Moving forward,
the AAC needs at least one great team to step out every year. East Carolina had
that chance and failed. Who will be the AAC's Boise State?
The good news
about parity is every AAC school – even SMU with the right hire – can
realistically believe they are the answer.
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I was thinking the same thing. If Memphis hadnt lost to Houston. they'd probably get that bowl bid.
ReplyDeleteI still think not playing ECU or UCF would hurt them too much. But it would be more realistic. I just don't see Memphis getting it with 3 losses.
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