This used to be the biggest weekend in college football.
There were always big games played on Thanksgiving weekend,
but it used to be only a select few. As the years went on, and conference
championship games popped up, more and more rivalry games moved to Thanksgiving
weekend.
Still, it was only
five years ago that Ohio State/Michigan and other season-enders took place
before Thanksgiving. But the Big Ten realized that ending its season two weeks
before anyone else was hurting its bowl performances. Then the conference
expanded to 12, then to 14, and almost every single rivalry game worth watching
is played next week.
That leaves us with the second-to-last regular season
Saturday of the year looking positively sad. Of the Top 10 teams in the playoff
rankings, only UCLA will play another ranked foe. Isn't it funny how that
ranked opponent is USC?
It makes you wonder why more rivalry games don't move to
this light
weekend. Duke and North Carolina, one of the best rivalries in college
sports if not known for football, will take the ESPN spotlight on Thursday
night.
It's unfortunate that so many college teams and conferences
are more than willing to toss this Saturday away – the SEC treats it as a bye
week – instead of spreading out rivalry games. There is plenty of opportunity
for conferences to move some of the lesser known rivalry games up a week to
garner some more attention.
Of course, the beauty of college football is that this light
weekend will almost certainly provide a stunning upset, maybe a last-second
victory or two, and we'll forget all about #1 Alabama playing Western Carolina
by the time we stuff our faces with turkey.
Overall Record:
64-70-1
Best Bet: 5-7
Upset Special: 5-6-1
Best Bet: 5-7
Upset Special: 5-6-1
Last year's 60% win
rate seems like a long, long, long time ago. I have been stuck
in .500 rut for the past few weeks after falling way below .500. One of
these weeks, I need to hit a bunch of winners. I have three left before the
bowls start so....let's hope it happens.
WEST VIRGINIA (-2)
over Kansas State
This is the game we discover Kansas State is overrated. They
are being propped up by a win against Oklahoma in which the Sooners did
everything possible to lose the game. It’s not like Oklahoma is the Top 10 team
we thought they were. Similarly, Kansas State was completely dismantled by TCU –
the same team West Virginia took the wire. If this game was in the Little Apple, I may
have a different opinion.
But it’s in Morgantown and West Virginia has had a bye week
to contemplate their let-down loss to Texas, when the Big 12 travel and the TCU
loss conspired to render the Mountaineers useless. They will be ready Thursday
night.
North Carolina (+6)
over DUKE
Time for everyone to admit Duke was a bit overrated. This
version is not as good as last year’s version. Their performance against
Virginia Tech last week pretty much summed that up. Like Kansas State, they are
being propped up by one good win (Georgia Tech) but aren’t that good.
There is a tremendous amount of pressure on Duke in this
spot, since they have to win out for a date with Florida State in the ACC Title
Game. UNC, on the other hand, feels like it’s on a roll and you know they can
score. Can Duke participate in a shootout?
Unrelated: Does
Georgia Tech want to win the ACC Coastal? If they beat Georgia (heck, or even
play them close) and don’t make the ACC Title Game, they will play in the
Orange Bowl. If they do make the ACC Title Game, they would have to beat
Florida State to play in the Orange Bowl. The former seems way more doable than
the latter, no?
MICHIGAN STATE (-22)
over Rutgers *Best Bet*
The last two times Rutgers went on the road, they were
bludgeoned into submission by Nebraska and flat-out embarrassed by Ohio State.
Similar to last year, Rutgers
is a team that wins the games they are supposed to and loses the games they
are supposed to.
This is most definitely a game they should lose. Michigan
State is still very much in play for a New Year's Six bowl and it feels like
they will be making a statement in their last two games against Rutgers and
Penn State. This is a “name the score” deal for the Spartans.
Minnesota (+10.5)
over NEBRASKA *Upset Special*
This is just a stupid line. Nebraska gave up 4,008 yards to
Melvin Gordon last week. Minnesota's David Cobb has already rushed for 1,300+
yards. That feels like a recipe for disaster.
As I said last week, Nebraska is not a very good football
team this year and I have zero idea why they are ranked instead of an
undefeated Marshall. Minnesota gave Ohio State a pretty decent game but simply
did not have the athletes to keep up with the Buckeyes. Luckily for the
Gophers, Nebraska does not have Ohio State's talent...or quarterback...or
coach.
Smu (+28) over UCF
This may seem like a strange game to pick, especially
considering SMU is winless and UCF is tied for first in the AAC. But I'm
a UConn fan, so I know UCF's only conference loss came to a really, really
bad team.
Other reasons I like this pick: SMU has been extremely
feisty in its last two games, which shows it has not given up hope of getting a
win, and UCF hasn't beaten an FBS team by four touchdowns all year, which
includes some pitiful teams like Tulsa and Tulane. I wouldn't go crazy and
predict an SMU upset, but this feels like a game where SMU is winning 10-7 at
half and holds on for an easy cover.
FLORIDA STATE (-19)
over Boston College
Florida State has a pretty obvious pattern, in terms of
gambling. They cover small spreads eventually; see Louisville and Miami. They
do not cover large spreads; see Clemson, Notre
Dame and Virginia.
In those five games, I am 4-1, missing out only on the Virginia
game. So why am I going against trend here? Because Boston College was the only
ACC team that gave FSU a game last year. That, combined with the Noles falling to
#3, makes me think this becomes a statement game. I said that before the
Virginia game and was wrong. Let’s see if I’m right this time.
ARKANSAS (+3) over
Ole Miss
TENNESSEE (-3.5) over Missouri
TENNESSEE (-3.5) over Missouri
I’m putting these two together because they’re eerily similar.
The home teams have finally turned the corner after some tough losses and have
young, talented rosters that seem ready to produce big wins. The road teams are
playing for their playoff and SEC title hopes, respectively. The road teams
also have terrible matchups to deal with.
For Arkansas, their Achilles heel has been great offensive
teams, like Auburn and Georgia. Ole Miss, without Laquon Treadwell, is not a
great offensive team. This will be another low-scoring affair and Arkansas has
been great in those – beating LSU and playing the #1 and #4 teams very tight.
For Tennessee, their Achilles heel has been teams with superior
talent in space, like Oklahoma, Alabama and Ole Miss with Treadwell. Missouri
is not that team.
Throw in the home field advantage – not to mention both home
teams playing for a long-awaited bowl berth – and it’s really dicey for the
road teams.
NOTRE DAME (-4) over
Louisville
Notre Dame's season is either about to run completely off
the rails or end up pretty respectable. With Louisville and USC to finish,
Notre Dame could beat two ranked teams to end the season, go 9-3, and probably
play in Orlando against Kansas State or Oklahoma. Or, they could lose both,
finish 7-5, and end up back in the Pinstripe Bowl.
Here's the deal with Notre Dame: they are simply too good to
go 7-5. I know that sounds crazy for a team that lost to Northwestern, but that
was the product of Brian Kelly having two
of the worst brainfarts in recent coaching history. Seriously, who goes for
two up 11? It made poor Doug Flutie's brain hurt as he tried to explain it.
Usc (+3.5) over UCLA
Before USC put the car in the garage, they were absolutely
throttling Cal. And before that, they tore up Washington State. Let's not
forget that USC should have beat Utah, but a misplaced foot on a fourth-down
call gave Utah life. If that doesn't happen, USC is 8-2 and a Top 10 team. Oh,
and Arizona State won on a Hail Mary, so USC should be 9-1.
Meanwhile, UCLA is 8-2 and a Top 10 team because they beat
the Arizona schools. However, they have been less than impressive against every
non-Arizona school. I'm not sold on UCLA at all.
While everyone is discussing
UCLA as controlling the Pac-12 South, USC remains very much alive in the
division race. If they beat UCLA, they would only need an Arizona State loss to
set up an enticing Pac-12 Title Game versus Oregon. I believe USC is better
than people think and I believe UCLA is not as good as people think – makes
this a no-brainer, right?
WASHINGTON (-6) over
Oregon State
The line tells you everything you need to know about the
relative strength of these two teams. Oregon State upset Arizona State at home
in one of those wacky #Pac12AfterDark
games where nothing makes sense. Earlier in the day, Washington outplayed Top
15 Arizona on the road and gagged it away late with a bad fumble.
Make no mistake: Washington is a better team than Oregon
State this year. The home field advantage plus teams feeling very different –
an angry Washington team and an Oregon State team ripe for a letdown – equals a
Washington victory.
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