There are few
things I hate more than autumn weather in July.
That sounds
stupid, right? Last Thursday evening, my girlfriend and I are walking the dog
and it’s a postcard-worthy evening that shouldn’t happen in Washington, D.C. in
July. Temperatures were in the 70’s. There was a cool breeze. The dog bounded up
and down the sidewalk, free from the oppressive heat.
It felt like football weather. It was not football season. That is the problem.
It did signal
that we are getting ever closer to the beginning of a new college football season.
What better way to celebrate than making some bold predictions?
So you are aware
– I do not forget about these come December. As fun to write now, I like going
back to check my work even more. I don’t like to brag, but I
batted .333 last year on my predictions, which gets me in the Nationals’ starting lineup. Right
Bryce?
*In April I made my first bold prediction, which is
that Notre Dame will make the first
college football playoff.
One of the big
talking points with the new
college football playoff has been the SEC getting two or, heaven forbid,
three teams into the playoff. On the surface, this discussion makes sense. The
SEC had the two best teams in 2011 with LSU and Alabama and certainly would’ve
had two teams in last year with Auburn and Alabama. We cannot forget that 2012
Florida was ranked #3 before its Sugar Bowl thrashing from Louisville.
Coming into this
year, it would appear that the conference will be the best conference in
college football – at least from an elite standpoint, if not top through bottom
strength – and that bodes well to get two teams into the discussion.
It won’t happen.
It is not because the SEC is so strong they will knock each
other off. The problem is the quarterback play.
Every top
contender in the SEC will be replacing its quarterback, with the exception of
Auburn. And the Tigers have to replace Tre Mason, who was more valuable
than Nick Marshall, who is going through his
own legal troubles at this point.
Alabama,
Georgia, South Carolina, Texas A&M and LSU will all play with
new starting quarterbacks. We have seen in recent years that a new
starting quarterback is not the detriment it once was – Jameis Winston is
smirking somewhere, Matt Leinart is nodding sadly – but it does add another variable to the title chase. For
that reason, the top SEC teams will be more susceptible to upsets from “lower
division” teams like Ole Miss, Mississippi State and Tennessee.
2) Todd Gurley will win the Heisman Trophy
I picked Georgia
to win the National Title last year. In the opener against Clemson, there was a
brief, fleeting moment when Georgia was healthy and I looked like a genius.
That moment occurred early in the first quarter, when Todd Gurley took the ball
off the right side and blasted down the sideline for a Herschel Walker-like 75-yard
touchdown.
Gurley would be
hurt later in the game. For the rest of the 2013 season, everyone on Georgia
was felled by an injury at some point, concluding with Aaron Murray’s
season-ending one in late November.
I still can’t get
that Gurley touchdown out of my mind. I cannot imagine what Georgia fans think
about it. The ultimate, “What if?” because Georgia was that good.
Todd Gurley is
still that good. The 2,000
yard talk has begun and I’m on the bandwagon with two feet. If Gurley stays healthy and
comes even close to that barrier in the SEC, he will win the Heisman Trophy. When he does…
3) Georgia will make the college football
playoff
The silver lining
to Aaron Murray’s injury is that this year’s starting QB, Hutson Mason, got
invaluable experience, leading a dramatic comeback against Georgia Tech and
playing in the Gator Bowl against Nebraska. Neither of those teams were Alabama
or South Carolina, but they were still quality, FBS opponents from Power Five
conferences.
The schedule
helps. LSU has cycled off, replaced by a road trip to Arkansas. Clemson, Georgia Tech and Auburn all visit Athens. The
season comes down to the South Carolina game on Sept. 13.
The winner
of the SEC will make the playoff and that is not really up for debate.
With two solid non-conference opponents from the ACC, Georgia will have no
qualms about schedule quality. They will win the SEC East. They will beat
Alabama in the SEC Title Game.
They will
play in the Sugar Bowl against Notre Dame.
4) Ohio State will go undefeated
Ohio State hasn’t
lost a regular season game since Urban Meyer arrived. In all fairness, they should have beaten Michigan State in
last year’s Big Ten Championship Game. That game has somehow been viewed
through a prism that Ohio State was a fraud and Michigan State exposed them
by running all over them, a view bolstered by Michigan State’s impressive Rose
Bowl victory over Stanford.
Ohio State was
leading after three quarters against the Spartans. That was not a blowout.
Ohio State spent the offseason knowing the offense would be lights out again.
The defense is the question mark. I cannot imagine Urban Meyer letting a poor
defense cost him a chance at a National Title two years in a row.
There will be no questions about the schedule, with Navy, Virginia Tech and Cincinnati
providing strong tests in the non-conference and a trip to East Lansing to
extract revenge. Come December, there is no one in the Big Ten West that can
stay within two touchdowns.
5) Auburn will lose at least three games
Otherwise
reasonable people have started to suggest that Gus Malzahn, based on one
magical season, is a better coach than Nick Saban.
Excuse me?
If Johnny
Football doesn’t get hurt… if Georgia defenders knock it down… if Alabama has a
kicker… Auburn is 8-4 in 2013. All credit to Auburn for pulling out so many
ridiculous victories but they aren’t getting all those breaks this year. Tre Mason
was far and away their best player and he’s gone.
The Tigers have
road trips to Kansas State, Mississippi State, Georgia and Alabama. Their SEC
East rotating opponent went from Tennessee to South Carolina. LSU, Ole Miss and
Texas A&M are still on the schedule. There may be nothing wrong with going
9-3 against that schedule. But that’s the ceiling.
6) An AAC team will be in the playoff hunt
come December
The
AAC has three really good teams, at least on paper, in Cincinnati, East
Carolina and UCF. In the first year of the college football playoff, it is
widely assumed only Power Five teams and Notre Dame have a chance. That may not
be entirely true. Each of those three teams has multiple non-conference tests
that – if aced – would put them in the playoff discussion if the thing isn’t
totally rigged.
Cincinnati: Miami, Ohio State
UCF: Penn State, Missouri, BYU
East Carolina: South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia Tech
UCF: Penn State, Missouri, BYU
East Carolina: South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia Tech
Here’s my guess:
UCF wins all three big non-conference games but loses the season finale at East
Carolina. The Power Five conference exhale a $30 million sigh of relief.
7) The weekly playoff rankings will be a
disaster
Could you imagine
if the NCAA Tournament committee put out a field of 68 every week and then had
the chairman defend it on ESPN? Even if they just did, say, the #1 seeds, it
would be an exercise in the absolute absurd.
So of course,
college football is doing this. I cannot quantify this but I guarantee you that
they will be a fiasco of epic proportions every week. Maybe this isn’t a bold
prediction as much as it’s stating fact?
8) Maryland will win 8 games; Rutgers will be
lucky to win 4
The 2013 UConn
football season was unpleasant. Yes, unpleasant, that’s a polite word for it.
Maybe 2014
will be more successful. It did, however, allow me to see the Big Ten’s two
newest teams in person.
Maryland looked
really good. Rutgers looked really bad.
While I may never
be over Randy Edsall leaving UConn, I cannot deny that his tenure at Maryland
has been defined by one thing – injuries. It would be a comical number of
injuries if the injuries weren’t inherently awful. He’s rarely had his team at
full strength at any point. If they stay healthy, there are 8 wins on Maryland’s
schedule. There could be
even more, since the two toughest opponents (Ohio State & Michigan State)
visit Maryland.
As for Rutgers –
the 2014
season could be a disaster unlike anything Rutgers fans are prepared for.
Let’s remember that Rutgers went 6-6 in the top heavy AAC and won only one road
game, an overtime escape against an SMU team that didn’t make a bowl. They beat
0 bowl teams in 2013.
This is Rutgers’
road schedule in 2014: Washington State, Navy, Ohio State, Nebraska, Michigan
State and Maryland. Who are they beating?
It may be good
for Rutgers because Kyle Flood is decidedly not the guy Rutgers need, so an
implosion could be good in the long run. They could end up 2-10, considering
Michigan, Wisconsin and Penn State are also on the docket.
9) Tennessee over Oklahoma will be the
year’s biggest upset
Oklahoma is my
pick for most overrated team. Yes, the win over Alabama was nice but there was
more than a little truth to what Nick Saban was saying about the Sugar Bowl
being a consolation game. Yes, Oklahoma looked good but, no, it doesn’t mean
Trevor Knight is now a Heisman contender.
The confidence, bordering
on arrogance, from Bob Stoops this offseason has been surprising and
off-putting. He realizes Oklahoma has won the Big 12 once in the past five
years, right?
It’ll be a home,
primetime game in which Oklahoma will be favored by about 30 against a rapidly
improving Tennessee team, who will be underrated because of a close week 1
victory over a really good Utah State team. Oklahoma will be overconfident.
Tennessee will keep it close. Oklahoma will falter late. And all those SEC
comments will come back to really bite Bob Stoops.
10) The Big 12 will announce expansion
plans by November
The league is not
getting a playoff spot this year. If strength of schedule truly means
something, they may not until Texas gets really good again because the league lacks
elite teams. The talking points about no conference championship game
are already starting and next year the Big 12 will be the only conference
without a title game, including the non-power conferences.
That’s not going
to work long-term. Before this season ends, the Big 12 will realize it needs to
match the number in its name and will announce such. Who those teams are? I
don’t know everything*.
*It’ll be BYU and UCF.
11) Florida State will not make the college
football playoff
Notre Dame is going
to beat Florida State. The Seminoles will show up to the ACC Title Game at 11-1
in the playoff hunt when they lose a stunner to….well, you have to keep
reading.
Why? Because
Florida State plays in a conference devoid of challengers. They were not tested
last year. They won’t be this year, which is why they will lose to Notre Dame.
After cruising through the ACC, they will take their title game opponent
lightly.
Have you heard
Jameis Winston talk
this offseason? He clearly believes merely showing up gets FSU to the Final
Four.
12) Navy will win 10 games this year
Navy won its last
five games of 2013. They probably should have beaten Notre Dame on the road,
which would have given them a 7-game winning streak to end the season. Their
QB, Keenan Reynolds, is really, really good and back for his junior season. The
defense is strong. There is a lot to like about Navy.
And the best
thing to like is the
schedule. The Midshipmen
have two mega games – the season opener against Ohio State in Baltimore and a
November clash against Notre Dame at FedEx Field that CBS is showing in
primetime.
Navy is going to
be really, really good. It should be favored in 10 games this year. I predict
they will win all 10 of those.
Has anyone
stopped to truly consider how badly Michigan fucked it all up with Rich
Rodriguez? He was trying to bring Michigan into the 21st Century, but the “Michigan
Men” revolted. So now Michigan is stuck with a coach who doesn’t even wear a
headset, has lost 11 games in the past two years and is so far behind Ohio
State that he went for two – AT HOME – to avoid overtime. That’s brutal.
Arizona,
meanwhile, is coming off of back-to-back 8-win season in the much more
difficult Pac-12 and destroyed Oregon last year, which is a better win than any
Michigan has had under Brady Hoke. But enough about how much Michigan sucks.
Rich Rodriguez
has it all going on in Arizona. With the administration and fans in Tucson
firmly behind him, the team is set for a big year. USC is in a year of transition
under a first-year coach, UCLA is getting way too much hype and Arizona State
has to visit Tucson – it’s all coming together. I can’t imagine Arizona beating
Oregon in Eugene, but they will still be the best the Pac-12 South has to
offer.
14) Oregon will lose two games…and still
make the college football playoff
The Pac-12
champion will make the college football playoff in year 1. It simply has to for
the system to be taken seriously because the league is as strong as any and
plays 9 conference games, a title game, and strong nonconference opponents.
So Oregon’s win
over Michigan State will be enough to offset losses to Washington State and
UCLA as it beats Top 25 teams Washington, Stanford and Arizona (twice) to win
the Pac-12. It will earn a Rose Bowl berth, doubling a semifinal game, against
Ohio State because college football always falls ass-backwards into
awesomeness.
To reiterate,
this will be your first college football semifinals on New Year’s Day as ESPN
celebrates by lighting cigars with $100 bills.
Rose Bowl: #1 Ohio State (13-0) vs. #4 Oregon (11-2)
Sugar Bowl: #2 Georgia (12-1) vs. #3 Notre Dame (11-1)
Sugar Bowl: #2 Georgia (12-1) vs. #3 Notre Dame (11-1)
15) Bo Pelini will be fired
I wrote about
this after the Nebraska spring game, when the program’s complete
national irrelevance was revealed when everyone wrote about Coach Pelini
holding up a cat. Because appeasing Twitter users is always a sure-fire way to
win football games.
Nebraska hasn’t
lost less than four games since 2003 – it’s beyond absurd that Nebraska has
gone more than a decade since being “great” and beyond the beyond of being
absurd that it hasn’t won a conference crown since 1999. That’s so long ago
that horny males were celebrating Britney Spears’ 18th birthday the last time
Nebraska was winning a title.
Nebraska isn’t
winning any titles this year and it’ll be time for a change that is long
overdue. I cannot be the only one who finds it ridiculous that Nebraska fans
are accepting of four-loss seasons, right?
16) Dana Holgorsen will be fired
On October 6,
2012, West Virginia beat Texas in a fantastic game, 48-45, to move to 5-0,
firmly in the Top 10, with Geno Smith as the honest-to-goodness Heisman
frontrunner. Coming off of the 70-point Orange
Bowl win, it looked like Holgorsen was everything he was cracked up to be,
when he took over for the late, and unfairly
maligned, Bill Stewart.
Since that game,
West Virginia is 6-14. They will almost certainly lose their opener to Alabama
by about 50. They very likely will start 1-3. Even the one W is Towson, an FCS
team that played for the FCS National Title in 2013 and annihilated (sigh)
UConn last year.
West Virginia
will not make a bowl game in 2014. They will be lucky to win 4 games. West
Virginia won at least 8 games for 10 straight years, until Holgorsen came
along. I don’t think the Mountaineer faithful will be as forgiving as the
Husker faithful – Holgorsen will not get multiple chances to prove himself.
17) North Carolina will win the ACC
Here’s my working
theory: Florida State is going to breeze through the ACC regular season. They
will not take UNC in the ACC Title Game seriously, despite like 80,000 UNC fans
in the stands. UNC will jump out to an early lead and hang on for dear life in one
of the season’s biggest upsets.
Why UNC? Larry
Fedora is the real deal as a head coach. Just look at those abs!
Actually, Fedora just knows his stuff offensively and it’s his third year with
the school, which is when he started kicking it into high gear with Southern
Miss. Lastly, I foresee a highly motivated UNC team due
to NCAA investigations.
18) South Carolina will make a New Year’s
Six bowl, and be disappointed
If South Carolina
played in any other conference, they would have played in the BCS multiple
times. The stupid rule that prevented a conference from getting more than two
teams in the BCS – made even stupider when they added another game – prevented a
lot of good teams from playing in the BCS. I mean, how silly is it that in 2012
both Jadeveon Clowney and Johnny
Football played for Top 10 teams and neither made the BCS.
With the new
bowl schedule, that is gone. But it has been replaced with a new hurdle for
South Carolina to hit and that’s the four-team playoff.
South Carolina is
going to lose to Georgia. They will go 11-1. They will miss out on the fourth playoff
spot to a two-loss Oregon team that won the Pac-12 and an 11-1 Notre Dame team
that played an insane schedule.
They will play in the Orange Bowl on New Year’s Eve. No one will give a crap.
19) Ratings for the Peach Bowl, Fiesta Bowl
& Orange Bowl will be down
Those who forget
history are doomed to repeat it.
On New Year’s Eve
1973, the Sugar Bowl featured Notre Dame playing Alabama for the national
title. A literal shit-ton of people watched.
On New Year’s Eve
1995, the Sugar Bowl featured Virginia Tech playing Texas for nothing. No one
watched. It did a 6.3 rating, possibly the worst ever for that bowl. Even the
much-maligned Louisville/Florida Sugar Bowl did a 6.4.
Here’s my point:
people will watch college football on New Year’s Eve when there’s a national
title on the line, or Johnny Football is playing. They will not if nothing is
on the line.
It boggles my
mind that college football already tried this! For three years prior to the
BCS, the Orange, Fiesta and Sugar Bowl rotated playing on New Year’s Eve. It
was such a disaster that the BCS was formed in large part to remove New Year’s
Eve from the rotation. And now we’re back?
The new playoff
executive director, aka the old BCS honcho, Bill Hancock
famously said, “I think this will absolutely change the paradigm for New
Year’s Eve in this country.”
Bill Hancock is
an idiot.
20) Ohio State will win the National
Championship
On New Year’s
Day, Ohio State will beat Oregon and Georgia will beat Notre Dame. In the
ultimate conference battle, Ohio State will defeat Georgia and the SEC for the
first Playoff National Title in college football history.
And the SEC will
spend the next 9 months trying to “fix” the playoff system.
Follow me on Twitter
You lost me at 11-1 Notre Dame, them beating FSU, and Ohio State winning it all lol wow FSU's c-game was good enough to beat Auburn's a-game (including play stealing). FSU overcame more adversity in that one game than the entire Big 10 did in 2013...combined. Is there a way I can get the 5 minutes of my life back from reading this?
ReplyDeleteI am not saying Florida State can't win it all, just that they won't. It's too hard to repeat. Schedule for them got way harder this year.
Delete1. "Because Florida State plays in a conference devoid of challengers. They were not tested last year. They won’t be this year, which is why they will lose to Notre Dame. After cruising through the ACC, they will take their title game opponent lightly."
Delete2. "I am not saying Florida State can't win it all, just that they won't. It's too hard to repeat. Schedule for them got way harder this year."
Argue with your self much?
What does "Jagnole101" mean when he/she says (including play stealing)? I heard nothing about this before now... thanks,
DeleteOSU will never win another National Championship without a hell of a lot of luck Big 10 is an inferior conference playoffs will take care of showing that to the world
ReplyDeleteI was right!
DeleteYour analysis of college football is awful. Notre Dame in the four-team playoff!?!? That is horrible. Plus, Ohio State will not win the National Title. They always blow it in huge games. Sir, I understand that you're supposed to make bold predictions, but not ludicrous ones.
ReplyDeleteDitto, this entire analysis goes far beyond bold and is heavily slanted. Notre Shame reaching the playoffs, really? You lost all credibility there and UGA making it as the only SEC team with a average starting QB, okay...
DeleteAbsolutely...here's a real bold prediction....Syracuse will beat Notre Dame....how d'ya like dem oranges??
DeleteI like several of these, but saying OSU schedule is not in question and saying the big 12 has no elite teams is crazy. I'd take the top 3 of the big 12 OU, Ok St, and Baylor over the entire big 10. OSU has a one game schedule, Mich St, VT is down, cincy is ok but not top 25 material and come on man with the Navy stuff.
ReplyDeleteNavy is going to be really good. And that will make Ohio St look good.
DeleteSean,
ReplyDeleteIt sounds like you put a lot of time in this .I really hope your right lol .Of course no one on the planet that isn't a Buckeye fan will agree with you .Here is a reality check for SEC fans.Your conference and team rankings are over rated . That being the case , It inflates your strength of schedule .The Pac 12 was a much better conf last year .The balance of power in the history of College Football has changed from one conference to another since the sport began .Football was played well before the BCS .With the exception of Alabama which has been a world beater for many years .The rest of the SEC is riding on there coat tails. I find it funny how a lot of SEC fans refuse to acknowledge football prior to the BCS.As far as I am concerned the balance of power has shifted to the west coast .That doesn't mean I am saying the SEC isn't a great conference .Its just not as good as the PAC 12.
Thank you Sean for all the effort and research you put into this .
Thanks. I agree the Pac-12 was far better top-to-bottom than the SEC and if that continues in 2014, their champ will be in the playoff.
Delete.333 might get you in the baseball All-Star game, but it will send you to the homeless shelter in Vegas.
ReplyDeleteNot true. A lot of my predicitions are longshots. Like Gurley is about 15-1 to win the Heisman. If a few of those come in, then .333 makes me $$$.
DeleteSean, just discover your blog, on my favorite subject outside of bad politics, College football. Love your Bold predictions. But I want to counter somethings in my opinion.
ReplyDelete1. Notre Dame will not make it to the playoff. Yes good chance they will win their first 5 games, all at home, Stanford being the toughest game. The next 3 games are on the road, with FSU, Navy, and Arizona St, and that a hell of a haul to play in. They will lose one of those games, and this leads me too:
2. don't sleep on Louisville. They enter the ACC, and even through they lost both the head coach and starting QB, the closet is not bare. This team can be scary in my opinion, and can beat Notre Dame on the road and FSU at home. Which brings me too:
3. FSU. And I agree, but they will be 10 -2 with loses to Okie St, Louisville and or Miami. Being the National Champ will place a big Target on there back, and everyone will know how to defense Jameis Winston.
4. South Carolina will lose two if not three games. You don't get better by losing Jadeveon Clowney and Kelcy Quarles off the defensive front, and the offense doesn't have Connor Shaw to save the day anymore.
5. Bo Pelini won't get fired, Nebraska will win 10 games, and as you said get beat by two TDs to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship. But if he is fired for another 9 - 3 season, Don't be surprised if Columbus doesn't come calling in 2015. Bo is a alumm of Ohio State. and he was a better D-Coord then he is as a Head Coach. And Urban Meyer not going to pass up the chance to place him on the coaching staff.
6. Ratings for the Peach Bowl, Fiesta Bowl & Orange Bowl will be down and so will the Cotton Bowl. Infact don't be surprised with this 4 team playoff system, the the demised of Capital One Bowel week (no i didn't misspell it) begins.
7. Don't count out Oklahoma, even through the Sugar Bowl win was over an Alabama team down from not making the BCS championship game, it still a big win. That makes recruits take note. They are right now the favorite to win it all in the Big 12.
8. Oregon won even win the PAC 12 conference title. Especially if they lose to Michigan State. They go to UCLA, they face Oregon State in Corvallis, and Washington is not to be overlooked. I can't see any two lost team getting into the playoff, especially if the Big 12 champ has one lost.
Other then that, great blog, glad I discovered it. I use to blog on the sporting news Website then they would let you a couple of years back.
Thanks for reading - appreciate the comments.
DeleteInteresting thoughts on Louisville. I wasn't sold on them last year but Teddy Bridgewater proved me wrong. I just don't know how good they will be with Strong & Teddy leaving. But Petrino can certainly win games and the ACC (after FSU/Clemson) isn't a powerhouse conference.
A SEC team wins the 1st CFB Playoff NC. BOOK IT!!
ReplyDeleteSEC= Super Exlax Conference. The great Alabama has lost 3 of 4 to OU in their history
Deletehttp://q.usatoday.com/2014/08/13/sec-network-bob-stoops-best-conference-big-12/
ReplyDeleteWhy all the hate on OU? And Stoops for that matter. Everything he said was true.
ReplyDeleteAnd BTW, OU shared the BXII title in 2012. Which keeps Stoops' streak of even year conference titles going since 2000.
He implied that only 1 or 2 SEC teams win/play for National Titles. But Florida, LSU, Alabama and Auburn have all won a title since 2006. And that doesn't include Georgia/South Carolina, top 10 teams the past five years. AND Johnny Football dancing all over OU in 2012.
DeletePoint is - the SEC has 6 programs as good as Oklahoma. So he should keep quiet until the Big 12 wins another win. Or he does, which hasn't happened in over a decade.
The win over Bama was nice but cmon...one win is not enough to make anyone think the Big 12 is better conference than the SEC.
You can argue semantics all day Sean. The point Stoops was making is that there is college football being played outside of the SEC. It's too bad so many of you folks in the media (intentionally or not) are having trouble grasping this. It's also well known that ESPN and the SEC are in bed together. There are a couple hundred million people out there who are tired of all the fluff every time they turn on the TV.
DeleteAs for the specific comments: you named 6 teams out of a 14 team conference who are "top ten". Maybe preseason top ten. Go look at '13 season ending rankings. The same aTm team who "danced all over OU" with Big XII recruit, Heisman winning, Johnny FB lost ten straight to Stoops. That same aTm team enjoyed giving ESPN media darling Bama a shiner of its on in Tuscaloosa. And then SEC runner up Mizzou ran all over the SEC with BXII recruits as well. So cmon... we can play this game all day.
As for the true title contenders: Auburn bought and paid for their title, Bama was gift wrapped a popularity contest rematch and UF is in the crapper.
Let us know if you want to chat about the teams Stoops WAS referring to.
"Go look at '13 season ending rankings."
DeleteThe one with 3 SEC teams in the top 5?? Dont think that's helping your cause.
You said 6 in the top ten.
Delete