I was wrong. I
was so very, very wrong.
Earlier this
year, I thought TCU
would ruin the Big 12. My reasons for being wrong have little to do with
TCU's on-field performance. Their run to the playoff contention has helped the conference
but it was more that I didn't understand the Big 12.
I wrote that
piece under the mistaken assumption the Big 12 operated like the other power
conferences in the extended game of Risk that is college football realignment.
I lumped the Big 12 in with the Big Ten and ACC in their attempts to gain a foothold
in New York City or the SEC adding Missouri for the St. Louis and Kansas City
markets.
The Big 12 has
the only Risk piece it will ever need – the state of Texas. When they added
TCU, they were merely ensuring the Lone Star State would be closed to
outsiders. Sure, Texas A&M can pop up and take some recruits, but it
ultimately doesn't matter. Texas is the richest state in terms of football
recruits and money. Texas A&M can't take all of it with them to the SEC.
I also foolishly
believed that the Big 12 needed to add more quality, big-name programs to
bolster its ranks and that was misguided too. The Big 12 has Texas and Oklahoma
and that's all it needs.
On Thanksgiving
night, TCU will play on the road at a 6-5 team. Yet this past weekend, analysts
across ESPN were describing it as a “showcase” or “statement” game for the
Horned Frogs. Why? Because that 6-5 team is Texas.
However, the Big
12 does face a looming problem that is not going away without expansion – the
lack of a conference championship game.
In the preseason,
this did not appear to be a problem. The Big 12 doubled down on their “One True
Champion” motto. The league
argued that it's the only league where everyone plays everyone else. In
theory, it made sense.
In practice, TCU
may be playing Iowa State on the same day Alabama is playing Georgia and a day
after UCLA plays Oregon. In the case of the latter, that's a rematch and, yet,
it means so much more for the Pac-12 than Oregon playing everyone else.
Whether it's a
rematch or not, the conference championship game adds another quality opponent
on any team's resume. The lack of one is going to severely hurt TCU and Baylor –
and more importantly, will hurt Big 12 teams as long as a four-team playoff
exists.
Look at the bump
Ohio State could get from beating Wisconsin. Imagine if TCU and Baylor, for
argument's sake, were preparing to play a rematch. The winner of that game
would have an infinitely stronger case for inclusion in the playoff.
Unfortunately for
the Big 12, they have other issues that make expansion targets tough to
consider. The league should have added Louisville and Cincinnati to go along
with West Virginia and that would've solved everything. But now Louisville is
in the ACC and Cincinnati by itself doesn't solve the Big 12's problem. They
need two teams.
I also argued
in the past for Boise State, which would have served the same purpose that
West Virginia does now – the geographic outlier that is there to bump up the
football side of things. The league can’t sustain two of those. We've seen with West Virginia that the travel
is a serious concern, which eliminate Cincinnati and Boise from being added
together. There are few other enticing options.
Two schools that
have been bandied about are USF and UCF as a
package deal. It makes sense, again, in theory as the schools offer top TV
markets and fertile recruiting grounds. But those two schools will always play
second-fiddle in the state to Florida and Florida State in the perception
battle – you think Oklahoma and Texas want to deal with that?
So that's how
I've landed on Houston and SMU. And you probably ended up on this post scratching
your head and wondering what I was smoking upon writing this.
The Big 12 has
only one significant problem with the makeup of its league – it doesn't have 12
members. That's it. The other possible additions bring their own headaches. How
do you do divisions? How will it impact travel? Are those schools guaranteed to
be good in football?
Houston and SMU –
I swear this is a compliment – are two warm bodies that the league needs to
fill out it roster. Their addition would allow the league to create divisions
that are shockingly equal in terms of competitiveness:
South: Texas,
TCU, Baylor, Texas Tech, Houston and SMU
North: Oklahoma,
Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Kansas, Iowa State, West Virginia
That alignment
also solves what was possible the league's biggest problem in a past life – the
fall of Nebraska in the 2000's meant the league's South division was far too
strong. With this alignment, Texas and Oklahoma are split up, with West
Virginia and Kansas State giving the North three teams – four if you count
Oklahoma State – that are Top 20 contenders in a given year.
Let's not forget
that the Big 12 has a willing
host in Jerry Jones for a title game at any time. They just have to ask.
With this alignment, not only can they give Jerry Jones the title game, the
league can dream about a Texas/Oklahoma title game. And unlike the Big Ten or
ACC, they don't have to gerrymander the divisions to make it happen. The ACC
divisions are still messed up because
the league wanted a Florida State/Miami title game that hasn't happened in 10
years.
The answer of
should they add Houston and SMU is an easy yes. Houston has proven to be a
decent to very good football program. SMU is currently a dumpster fire but was
knocking on the door of relevance a few years ago. It doesn't take a rocket scientist
to realize both schools would be bolstered significantly by a jump to a Power
Five conference.
The real question
is. “Will this happen?” The obvious answer, as I write this, is no. SMU is the
worst team in the FBS right now. The Big 12 has remained steadfastly opposed to
expansion.
When will that
change? It could change as soon as this December 7, when a 1-loss TCU or Baylor
is left out in favor of Ohio State. It could take until next year, when Oklahoma
is left out. Or maybe this gets played out for several years.
Make no mistake –
at some point in time, the Big 12 will comprehend they need a conference title
game. When that moment arrives, they will start looking over options. They will
see few good ones.
Houston and SMU
bring the least to the table themselves, yet their inclusion opens up a world
of possibility for the league.
Pitch a
Texas/Oklahoma title game on the first weekend in December with playoff
implications to Fox or ESPN, and see what they say.
Follow me on Twitter
SMU?? Give me a break.
ReplyDeleteHouston would be a good add to the Big 12, but SMU??? SMU fits better in the AAC with Tulane, Tulsa, etc. Besides, how would that fix WVU being on an island? Cincinnati compliments WVU. Add Cincinnati and Houston and split the divisions into an East-West alignment.
ReplyDeleteEast: ISU, KSU, Cincinnati, WVU, Houston, TCU.
West: Texas, TTU, Baylor, OU, OSU, Kansas
Gets everyone in playing in Texas, preserves UT/OU rivalry, and nice division of strength. You could flip TCU/Baylor.
If the Big 12 wanted to go to 14, then add Memphis & one other. maybe Colorado St or Tulane just for New Orleans and getting into SEC territory.
SMU does not want to be in the AAC with Tulane and Tulsa...SMU belongs in a Power conference such as Big 12
DeleteThe writer needs to stop being lazy and do a little more homework......... fact: the big 12 already knows and has indirectly acknowledged the need for a championship game, hence the already filed application with the ncaa to field a conference championship game and waive the 12 team requirement. When the NCAA denies the Big 12's request they will expand.
ReplyDeleteI am well-aware of that fact. I don't see how this changes my point at all.
DeleteI always have interest to know updates on big 12 teams, and your articles is very informative on this topic. Yeah I agree on that Houston will be a big and nice add to Big 12. Can you give more information in detail?
ReplyDeleteI'd love the SWC flavor of adding SMU and Houston to the Big 12.
ReplyDeleteCincinnati, Houston, UCF & USF with a 5-game scheduling agreement with BYU in football would be the best idea for Big 12 expansion and become the Big 14, add inventory, charge for it and strengthen the conference in case you have future defections. All 4 schools would be able to cash-in on Tier 3 rights too with Fox Sports Ohio or SportsTime Ohio, Root Sports Southwest, Fox Sports Florida & Sun Sports
ReplyDeleteAdd SMU and Houston both of these teams will help the interest of Texas viewers and fans. Eventually SMU will get its football program together, The AAC is a bad conference for both SMU and Houston, they belong in the Big12.
ReplyDeleteSMU adds nothing of real value to the Big 12. I think SMU would be better off by dropping football completely.
ReplyDeleteHey Texas, is that you?
DeleteSMU adds the Dallas TV market and a nationally ranked men`s basketball team
DeleteWho's the smu hater??? Vs Houston??? Houston is basically a community college!
ReplyDeleteThis is defintely a UT fan still mad and fearful of a UH team that will kick Big 12 butt when it gets the Power 5 conference status it deserves.
DeleteUT fans still remember the Cougars walking into Austin and walking out with big wins over their precious Wronghorns. It`s obvious they are deathly afraid of some competition