This Saturday's slate is, well, it's not pretty. There's not
a single matchup of ranked teams. ESPN Gameday eschewed history at the Yale
Bowl for an uninspiring SEC matchup between one team that just lost to Indiana
and one that barely beat Vanderbilt. Even the ABC primetime game offers little,
as Notre Dame travels to MetLife Stadium to pummel Syracuse.
Oh wait. That just happened.
There is always one weekend, usually in late September or
early October, where the college football world seems to stay put. Last year, I
had the pleasure (?) of attending UConn/Michigan. It was the ABC primetime game
on another day that featured zero ranked matchups. It happens.
Thankfully, it appears our patience will be rewarded because
October 4 is shaping up to be one of the best Saturdays in recent memory.
There are currently six Top 25 matchups looming, including three from the SEC
West, a huge game in the Big Ten and a Stanford/Notre Dame showdown that could
have huge playoff implications. That's only the tip of the iceberg -- you know
it's a good day when LSU/Auburn could be the sixth most intriguing game.
Alas, that's next week. My only question is: will ESPN come
up with a cool nickname? I've always been partial to
Separation Saturday, the legendary Saturday in early 2006 that features a
slew of ranked matchups. Come on ESPN, step up the plate!
By the way, even though I said all that, I've really buried
the lede -- I do think something big will happen on Saturday. You have to keep
reading...
Overall Record: 21-25
Best Bet: 2-2
Upset Special: 3-1
Best Bet: 2-2
Upset Special: 3-1
I went 6-5
last week for my first winning weekend of the year, thanks to an awesome
late cover by Virginia. Thank you Cavaliers! We have officially reached the
toughest part of the college season to handicap. This is the time of the year
when the light bulb goes on for young players and new coachers that had
previously underperformed. It's trouble.
OKLAHOMA STATE (-13.5)
over Texas Tech
Am I the only one who is starting to think Oklahoma State
was severely underappreciated going into the season? People were treating them
like a cupcake going into the opener versus Florida State, but this is a team
that played in the Cotton Bowl last year and went into the final regular season
game of the year controlling its BCS destiny. That one loss to Oklahoma seemed
to erase everything that had happened for the previous 11 games.
I love Oklahoma State at home to make a pretty resounding
statement that they will again challenge Oklahoma and Baylor for the Big 12
title. As for Texas Tech, they lost their defensive coordinator under weird
circumstances and got curb stomped by Arkansas last time out. I felt last year
that Texas Tech was an average team that couldn't beat good ones. I have seen
nothing so far to change that opinion.
If I were doing this for real monies, I would not pick this
game. But I am not, so I will. Arizona State definitely won't have its starting
quarterback. Jim
Mora is playing games about the status of Brett Hundley, which is probably
a smokescreen. It feels like he won't play.
UCLA played a whole game without Hundley against a motivated,
if not great, Texas team and pulled out a tough, hard-fought victory. You
really can't put a price on a performance like that. Arizona State hasn't
played anyone yet and goes into its biggest game without their QB. I know the
line is a total guess but this feels like a pick 'em to me, so I’m taking the
points.
GEORGIA (-17) over
Tennessee
This line feels too high, right? It exists to bait you into
taking Tennessee, which is exactly what I did when the Volunteers played Oklahoma
and I paid for it when a late INT return ruined the cover.
My simple rule when taking any underdog, no matter the
spread, is imagining a scenario where the underdog wins. There is no way in
hell that Georgia is losing this game. Mike Bobo will run Todd Gurley 35 times
if he has to. Georgia seemed mad as hell last week against Troy and I think
that continues. Georgia knows they Clemson’d away the South Carolina game and
it won't happen again.
Maryland (+5) over
INDIANA
This line is a complete and total overreaction to an aberration.
Even stranger, the line opened up at Indiana -2.5 and has jumped to what you
see here as I write this. I know that Indiana just pulled off a huge win but
they lost to Bowling Green the week before. And if you watched any amount of
the Indiana/Missouri game, you would know that Missouri put forth a D- effort.
Credit to Indiana for taking advantage but they were the inferior team.
Maryland provided me a nice win last weekend with an easy
cover at Syracuse and my gut tells me they are a better team than Indiana. I
can't get the image of Bowling Green scoring at will against the Hoosiers out
of my mind. It may be a shootout but Maryland will win.
NC STATE (+19.5) over
Florida State *Upset Special*
Did I mention something big is going to happen? You heard it
here first -- #1 Florida State is going down at their own personal house of
horrors in Raleigh.
For all the talk of Jameis Winston, there are way more red
flags than him. And it starts with the defense, which got exposed by Oklahoma
State in the opener and put up little resistance against a freshman QB last
week. Yeah, Clemson
Clemson'd real hard but they should have won last week by multiple scores.
They were a superior team at the line of scrimmage, which surprised me and
which they were not even close to a year ago.
Meanwhile, Florida State seems off. Maybe it's the Winston
thing. Maybe it's the National Title hangover. Maybe it's the shock of playing
a real schedule after getting 11 cupcakes and Clemson a year ago. Maybe they're
already looking ahead to the Notre Dame game, which has the potential to be one
of the biggest home games in school history.
Whatever the reason, I hate the look of Florida State right
now. They think they've escaped the tricky part with the Clemson victory and
are going to severely underestimate a pesky NC State team.
Arkansas (+8.5) over
Texas A&M
I'm going to go against Texas A&M one more time before I
believe. I hated
them in the preseason and they proceeded to make me look like an idiot.
They've played two cupcakes since. What will they do when a smash mouth team
shows up?
Arkansas will not make the same mistake South Carolina and
Steve Spurrier made in the opener, by abandoning the running game and playing
into Kevin Sumlin's hand. This may be a high-scoring game but it won't be a
shootout. I was high on Arkansas to start the season, but their defense wasn’t
ready to go 60 against Auburn. I'm betting they are now.
David Shaw is the scariest coach to back. His conservative
playcalling is a drain on the Cardinal and has posed significant problems. We
should have known this when he
lost the 2012 Fiesta Bowl by playing for field goals with Andrew Luck as his quarterback. He lost
to USC twice by ultra-conservative playcalling. Their lack of urgency late in
games last year cost them the Rose Bowl and nearly allowed Oregon to pull off a
miracle comeback. David Shaw has to loosen up and let his talented players
play.
That being said, it won't matter Saturday. Washington has
given me exactly zero reason to believe they are on Stanford's level. A
one-point win over Hawaii? Losing 14-0 at half to Georgia State? Giving up 52
points to Eastern Washington? Chris Petersen is a great coach but this is a
rebuilding, restructuring year for the Huskies.
Cincinnati (+15) over
OHIO STATE
This is where I remind you Ohio
State was my preseason national title pick before Braxton Miller got hurt.
I didn't think Miller was that big of a factor but, as has been proven many
times before, I was very, very wrong. The loss to Virginia Tech looks worse by
the second.
As for Cincinnati, Gunner Kiel has been a revelation so far
at quarterback and the players will be treating this like their Super Bowl. I
don't think the coaches, fans or players have been too happy that East Carolina
has been the AAC
poster child through September. Cincinnati wants to play in the Peach Bowl
too dammit!
The Bearcats don't get my "Upset Special" nod
because of the defensive concerns, but they should go toe-to-toe with Ohio
State.
SOUTH CAROLINA (-5)
over Missouri
South Carolina's win over Vanderbilt was ripped by Steve
Spurrier but that was the ol' ball coach doing what he does best. The game
wasn't that close at all, though the score was thanks to two Vanderbilt kickoff
returns.
Missouri, on the other hand, embarrassed itself and lost at
home to the 11th-best Big Ten team. They were probably looking ahead but a team
needs to be able to look ahead and beat Indiana. They didn't. They are about to
get rocked by the Gamecocks.
Duke (+7) over MIAMI
Miami is done. Al Golden is done. The talent level just
isn't there. It's probably unfair since the NCAA killed their recruiting due to
their botched investigation and years of inaction, but we live in unfair times.
Duke getting a touchdown here is a gift from the gambling Gods.
Notre Dame (-12) over
Syracuse
I believe Notre
Dame will make the first college football playoff. And teams that make the
playoff will beat a team like Syracuse by two touchdowns. Syracuse is not good.
They just got smoted at home by Maryland. Notre Dame is miles ahead of the
Orange right now.
The only thing that gives me pause is Notre Dame will
clearly be looking ahead. They sleepwalked through the Purdue game and could
very likely do the same here. They play Stanford next week. Most everyone
thought Notre Dame had a 90+ percent chance of starting 4-0. They know that.
Brian Kelly knows that. The real season starts in October. Still, a Top 10 team
with championship aspirations takes care of business.
This is not the 2012 Notre Dame team, which needs miracles
and one-score wins every week. This team is better. At least, I think it is.
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