This is the part where I rant about something related to the
sport – but who cares? It’s Thanksgiving! We can save the talk about the
confusing selection committee or impending
realignment when there are no games going on.
Starting Thursday night and running through the wee hours of
Sunday night, division titles will be decided, rivalries will be renewed,
hearts will be broken, seasons will be ruined and so much food will be
consumed.
If you love college football as much as I do – or even if
you just merely like the sport – this is what the whole season has been
building to. After Saturday, it’s conference championships and bowl games.
This weekend is about the essence of the sport. They can
move the non-conference games to
neutral sites. They can prevent conference foes from playing every year. But
the powers at be cannot destroy Ohio State/Michigan, Notre Dame/USC or the Iron
Bowl. Well, at least they haven’t yet – and for that, we should be thankful.
Overall Record: 70-75-1
Best Bet: 6-7
Upset Special: 6-6-1
Best Bet: 6-7
Upset Special: 6-6-1
It is becoming readily
apparent I will not be hitting .500 in the regular season as I dug myself way
too big a hole early in the season and a string of 6-5 weeks have not helped.
Thankfully, there are enough bowls that I can turn it around by January. Right?
Tcu (-6.5) over TEXAS
I think Texas is a vastly improved team from the beginning
of the season. I think Charlie Strong’s defense will make life miserable for
TCU. I think the stadium will be packed and rocking as the faithful show up for
a Longhorn revival.
But I also think TCU – despite being so,
so wrong earlier this year – is going to make the playoff. I doubted them
all year but there are one horrific stretch of football against Baylor from being
undefeated and a clear #1 in the country. I wish the spread was a little lower,
but this is TCU’s conference championship. Texas is simply a year away from
winning a game like this.
IOWA (Pk) over
Nebraska
Going against Nebraska has been such a good angle, as their
last two losses haven’t come within three scores of covering the spread. This
week, the Cornhuskers – in what has to be the end of Bo Pelini’s reign
of indifference – finish out schedule against Iowa, where they will surely
pick up their pre-ordained fourth loss.
Iowa has been up and down this year but you get the feeling
they’ll have plenty of motivation after a heartbreaking loss to Wisconsin last
week. Also, Nebraska sucks this year and their only good wide receiver (Kenny
Bell) is very questionable.
UCLA (-4.5) over
Stanford
This line gives me great pause. UCLA is one of the hottest
teams in the country playing at home for a Pac-12 South title while Stanford is
barely bowl-eligible and hasn’t beat a team with a pulse all year. I actually
would have given Stanford a better chance if they had lost to Cal and needed
this game for a bowl. Instead, they have their bowl and UCLA appears to finally
have figured out how to keep Brett Hundley protected.
GEORGIA (-13) over
Georgia Tech
With a Missouri loss, Georgia is in the SEC Title Game. With
a Missouri win, they’re not. So this game, technically, means nothing. It also
means everything. Georgia needs a win to secure a New Year’s Six bowl. If they
win out, including a win over Alabama, they could be in the playoff mix. For
the season Georgia has had, that’s a pretty remarkable statement.
As for Georgia Tech, they haven’t played a team as good as
Georgia all year, much less beaten one. Despite this game’s stature as a
rivalry game, the more important game for the Yellow Jackets comes a week from
Saturday in Charlotte.
LOUISVILLE (-12.5)
over Kentucky *Best Bet*
To say things have run off the rails for Kentucky during an
ugly five-game losing streak is being kind. They have been non-competitive in
four of those five games and really, really non-competitive in road games
against LSU and Georgia.
Louisville has reeled off two huge road wins – at Boston
College and at Notre Dame – since they ran out of steam against Florida State.
Depending on how Georgia Tech finishes, the Cardinals are in a very legitimate
spot to play in the Orange Bowl as the ACC’s replacement for playoff-bound Florida
State. Bobby Petrino is not one to take the foot of the gas pedal. This could
get real, real ugly for the Wildcats.
Michigan State (-13)
over PENN STATE
Last week, Michigan State was running end-arounds for
offensive linemen in a 45-3 thrashing of Rutgers while Penn State was
losing to Illinois. In the past two months, Penn State has only beaten Indiana
and Rutgers. Michigan State is looking to make one last statement to the
selection committee for a New Year’s trip to Dallas or Atlanta. You think they
are about to screw that up by messing around with Penn State?
Minnesota (+13.5)
over WISCONSIN *Upset Special*
This has to be a first for me – Minnesota was my upset
special a week ago against Nebraska and they’re my upset pick again this week.
I could not have been more impressed with Minnesota a week
ago. Regardless of how bad I think Nebraska is, the Golden Gophers had every
reason to call it a day. They gave up a touchdown on a field goal return. Their
best player, RB David Cobb, was knocked out of the game. It was Senior Day in
Lincoln. Yet, they keep pounded Nebraska on the ground and eventually wore them
down.
Should Wisconsin win this game? Yes. But despite the
exploits of Melvin Gordon, I simply do not trust coach Gary Andersen in a close
game. The Badgers blew their
opener to LSU and gagged one away at Northwestern. Last week, they did
everything in their power to give away the Iowa game, but were saved by Gordon.
On the other sideline, Jerry Kill has proven to be a miracle
worker whose teams tend to excel and execute in tight games – only Illinois
this year proved to be an exception. This line is way too high.
FLORIDA STATE (-7.5)
over Florida
I am so stupid. Florida State has covered small spreads and
failed for big spreads. Last week, with a giant line against Boston College, I tried
to outsmart myself and picked Florida State. They nearly lost.
I will not make that mistake twice in a row! The parallels
to Ron Zook winning his last game as Florida coach in Tallahassee is cute but
this Seminole team is the best
team in the country. Yes, I said it. They don’t deserve to be #1 but they
are the best. They take everyone’s best shot and rope-a-dope like Ali before
winning. They may take the first half off again but the smallish spread means
it won’t matter.
OLE MISS (-2) over
Mississippi State
Vegas has to know something I don’t, right? We just saw Ole
Miss get creamed by Arkansas. Mississippi State is still in the SEC West and
playoff hunts. Why the heck is this line only two?
The line is begging you to pick Mississippi State. If the
house wants you to do something, do the opposite. That’s it. That’s my
reasoning. Because there’s nothing football-wise that suggests Ole Miss has a
chance here.
Tennessee (-17) over
VANDERBILT
They couldn’t make this line high enough. Tennessee is
playing for its first bowl berth since 2010 while Vanderbilt just lost 51-0 to
Mississippi State. If Vandy even covers, it’s further proof that college
football makes zero sense.
ALABAMA (-9.5) over
Auburn
Last year, Alabama was a 10.5-point favorite on the road and
I
took them. This year, they’re a 9.5-point favorite at home against an
Auburn team that just got thumped by Georgia. Alabama is playing for a playoff
berth, an SEC West title and revenge for its most painful loss ever.
Stupid quotes from oleary who understands nothing of college football......."The reality is that the Big Ten, already in a public relations battle over its football prowess, is saddled with another Minnesota."
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