Was the first
version of the College Football Playoff too successful?
It is bizarre to
even broach such a topic in the wake of the two most-viewed
cable programs in television history. It is even more bizarre when thinking
about the perception of the playoff before New Year’s Day.
It dawned on me
at exactly 12:30 p.m. New Year’s Eve day that people had
forgotten. It had been two decades since New Year’s Day mattered. As the
Peach Bowl kicked off, I felt like I was 12 again – preparing for two full days
of the best playing the best.
By the time
Ezekiel Elliott sprinted for a game-clinching touchdown in an instantly iconic moment,
college football had, to borrow a phrase, re-introduced itself to America. Both
the Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl surpassed 28 million viewers. There is no telling
how big the championship game could become.
However, the
amazing results of Year 1 could pose serious issues for ESPN – both semifinals
are scheduled to be played on New Year’s Eve for the next two years. That is
not going to work.
The first year of
the Playoff indicated that many, many people like to watch college football but
many of these people do not like watching college football on New Year’s Eve.
Yes, there are millions watching – the ratings for the Peach, Fiesta and Orange
were nothing to sneeze at. The game didn’t feature one name brand, like a Notre
Dame or Alabama, and only one of them was competitive in the fourth quarter.
It’s a very small sample size. But it’s worrisome.
Can the semifinal
games come close to 28 million on New Year’s Eve? That is what ESPN is banking
on. They have been getting 15+ million on New Year’s Day for “meaningless” BCS
games for the past few years. They are gambling they can turn New Year’s Eve
into another football holiday.
As if it isn’t
obvious, here’s a spoiler alert: They cannot.
Common sense
would say that a semifinal game, at least one, should always be on New Year’s
Day. But in a rush to appease the Big 12 and SEC, ESPN agreed to put their
Champions Bowl – the Sugar Bowl – on New
Year’s Night after the Rose Bowl. The Rose Bowl will be played at 2 p.m. PT
every New Year’s Day until the end of time, as it has been for 100 years. The
Sugar Bowl between the Big 12 and SEC champions has, well, never been played.
ESPN has a
problem. They now know the extent of the audience on New Year’s Day and Night
for a semifinal game. How can they pass that up?
There is no way
in hell – in my opinion – that the current rotation of two semifinal games on
New Year’s Eve for two straight years will last past the 2016 season. But what
will ESPN do? I’m glad you asked – I have some possibilities.
The Split: One Semifinal on New Year’s Eve, One on New Year’s Day
There are three
Access bowls – Peach, Fiesta and Cotton – that do not have conference tie-ins.
There are three Host bowls – Orange, Rose, Sugar – that do. In this scenario,
the Access bowls are always played on New Year’s Eve with one game in primetime
hosting a semifinal. The Host bowls are all on New Year’s Day with the Rose
Bowl always in its traditional slot, hosting a semifinal once. The Sugar gets
the primetime slot twice, once as a semifinal, and the Orange gets it once –
the other game occupies the 1 p.m. slot.
This appeases the
Big 12 and SEC, as the Sugar Bowl remains in primetime after the Rose two out
of three years. The playoff games are every year split, which means college
football fans know they must pay attention both days – clearly many casual fans
tuned out on 12/31 this year. It will also boost the non-playoff games – see
the huge numbers the Cotton Bowl as a lead-in relative the other bowls.
The Compromise: Sugar and Rose don’t host semifinals together
If ESPN
absolutely has to keep the Sugar Bowl on New Year’s Night, it can at least
split the semifinals so New Year’s Day isn’t a lame duck. In this scenario,
there would be one year of both semifinals on New Year’s Eve followed by two
years of one on each day. This is better than what we will have but not ideal.
The Ideal: Both Semifinals on New Year’s Day, screw the Sugar Bowl
If we gave the
Sugar Bowl some money, would that make it okay?
The semifinals
need to be played on New Year’s Day. The Rose Bowl can still be at 5 p.m. ET
every year. The primetime game rotates between the Sugar, Orange and Fiesta as
a playoff game. When the Peach or Cotton hosts a semifinal, they do so in the 1
p.m. timeslot.
The only
drawbacks to the playoffs on New Year’s Day every year are – oh, who am I
kidding? There are no drawbacks, just minor details.
The Citrus and
Outback bowls would likely have to move. New Year’s Eve would never host a
playoff game; merely bowl games that “only” attract 10 million viewers. Maybe
ESPN could move the Citrus and Outback to New Year’s Eve – CBS could move the
Sun Bowl back too – and that day can become the football overload in advance of
the championship games the next day.
The Future? An Expanded Playoff
When I wrote
about my dream
of a 16-team playoff, I said that the semifinals should be at the Rose and
Sugar Bowl every year. Maybe that is the end goal?
While I doubt a
16-team playoff is realistic, an 8-team seems extremely realistic consider
there are 6 bowls in the New Year’s Six and there are 6 games needed in an
8-team tournament to get to a title game. I don’t know if the future is 2017 or
2027, but that appears where we’re headed. Even if I love the current four-team
playoff after hating
it so, so much in theory.
What Would I Do?
I have longed for
New Year’s Day to mean something again. Now that it does, it’s going away for
two years? I cannot accept that. I want to experience what I experienced on
1/1/2015 every year until I die. Both games need to be played on New Year’s
Day.
Deep down, I
believe everyone involved knows this. Why else did they only announce the first
three years of bowls? Because they have to find out if the semifinals on New
Year’s Eve could work. It won’t.
New Year’s Day
works too perfectly for New Year’s Eve to compete.
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