The first New Year's Day I ever remember changed college
football forever. That's not hyperbole.
In 1988, NBC gave up the Rose Bowl. It's fascinating to
think about in retrospect but NBC didn't feel the game warranted a high fee and
let the game go to ABC. At the time, the Rose Bowl was in trouble due to its
association with the Pac-10 and Big Ten. In particular, this was a time
dominated by independents like Miami, Florida State, Penn State and Notre Dame.
In response to losing the game, NBC moved the Fiesta Bowl
opposite the Rose Bowl. It was the first time another bowl game was played
against it. To add salt to the wounds, the 1989 Fiesta Bowl featured Notre Dame
winning the national championship over fellow unbeaten West Virginia and the
game trounced
the Rose Bowl in the ratings.
For the next five years, New Year's Day became a ridiculous
feast of football. There was the Rose and Fiesta in the early evening, the
Orange and Sugar at night, and the Citrus, Hall of Fame (now Outback) and
Cotton in the later afternoon. As the child of a Notre Dame grad who instilled
a love of college football, it was the single greatest day of the year.
It was too much of a good thing. The bowls were pitted
against each other and the system broke down. Fans wanted a national
championship game every year. The bowls were sick of cannibalizing the
audience. New Year's Day slowly disintegrated.
The best games, with the exception of the Rose, moved
post-New Year's Day. With the dreaded double-hosting model, the BCS moved
the title game 10+ days past New Year's Day at times. It was absurd. It was
sad. It was terrible.
However you feel about the
four-team playoff, the college football leaders clearly recognized that
they had to do something. Hockey – frozen ice hockey – had taken over New
Year's Day with the Winter Classic. What in the name of America had happened?
Now having both semifinals on New Year's Eve the next two
years is insanity, there is no doubt that having the six big games on the two
holidays is a huge plus for the sport. There will be energy and excitement
around a day that has long defined college football.
It'll be good to have you back, New Year's Day. It had been
a strange
20 years.
TCU (-3) over Ole
Miss
I think TCU is better than Ohio State. I think TCU is better
than Baylor. I think TCU should have been in the college football playoff. Now,
I don't think it was a grave
injustice – they blew the game at Baylor and probably weren't the “one true
champion” of the Big 12. But they were the best team.
And I think Gary Patterson knows all of this. His response
to being left out of the playoff was markedly different than Art Briles. In
part, it's because Patterson knew that TCU needs to win all of its games to
make the playoff. Paterson is very realistic about TCU's place in the college
football world – they won a Rose Bowl, sure, but they need to prove they belong
at the Big Boy table for the duration.
That's why I believe TCU is going to come out and lay an
absolute whipping on Ole Miss. It will be a fascinating matchup with the
fantastic Ole Miss defense, but it's a matchup that plays in TCU's favor as
they can exploit matchups in the secondary to rack up yards through the year. I
don't see Ole Miss scoring enough to keep up.
Arizona (-3) over
Boise State
The worst thing that happened for Boise State was the Pac-12
Title Game. Arizona got embarrassed and they have been licking their wounds for
a month by the time this game kicks off. Do you really think they want to end
this fantastic season with two bad losses?
Let's not forget that Rich Rodriguez is an incredible bowl
coach. He is 2-0 at Arizona and he won his last two with West Virginia,
including the 2006 Sugar
Bowl win over Georgia that was a landmark win for the Big East and that
program. This is a similar game for Arizona. They are favored but they need a
big win to establish that it is a perennial Pac-12 contender.
Boise State is good – but it's Mountain West good. The only
time they played a top Power Five team this year, Ole Miss played a C- game and
still whipped them. Boise State has improved since then, I just don't think
they've improved enough.
Mississippi State
(-7.5) over Georgia Tech
This is a terrible matchup for Georgia Tech. Mississippi
State is very familiar with option tendencies and reads from what they run on
offense. They have a massive and talented front seven that has shut down
everyone's running game this year.
While everyone loves Georgia Tech's offense, their defense
has been pretty porous at times and Dak Prescott could have a monster game. On
paper, everything about this game points toward Mississippi State so I'm not
going to out think myself.
Auburn (-7) over
Wisconsin
Auburn hired
Will Muschamp as its defensive coordinator. Wisconsin's coach left to go to
Oregon State. These are two teams headed in different directions. Auburn saw
Ohio State score 59 and they'll be gunning for that number.
Melvin Gordon could have a big game, but even if he gets
Wisconsin to 35, that won't trump Auburn getting to 65.
Minnesota (+6) over
Missouri
Minnesota has been one of my favorite teams all year, constantly
covering
double-digit spreads down the stretch. It is another great matchup pick, as
Missouri is built with fast defensive ends who rush the quarterback while
Minnesota is built to smash you straight-ahead with RB David Cobb.
The last time Missouri played a team like that, it was
Georgia and they lost 34-0. Is Minnesota as good as Georgia? No. But they will
run at will, control the game and tempo, and grind out a tight win.
Michigan State (+3)
over Baylor
First off, I am not picking Michigan State because I think
Baylor won't be motivated. Now, that may change if Art Briles gets crazy and
goes to DC to coach RG3. But I firmly believe Baylor will be sufficiently
pumped up and motivated to play in its first Cotton Bowl in more than 30 years.
Art Briles is a Texas guy and he knows the importance
of the Cotton Bowl.
However, this is a game Michigan State has to have. I know
that seems weird to write but Michigan State failed in its only two big games
this year against Oregon and Ohio State. If you go 10-3 without beating a
ranked team, does it count? This is a statement game for the Spartans and it
will validate their entire season.
Baylor's defense is putrid and Michigan State's offense is
miles better than it was last year. Even if this game turns into a shootout,
Michigan State is equipped to handle it.
Florida State (+9.5)
over Oregon
Are you kidding me with this spread? I am well aware Florida
State hasn't beaten an elite team all year, but they have beaten many decent to
good ones. They haven't lost in two years. You're giving me more than a touchdown?
Thank you very much.
All year, I've thought Florida State is the best team and
Jameis Winston is
the best player. The problem is they show this for about 10 minutes a game
and those 10 minutes are enough to win. I thought the ACC Championship game was
one of their more impressive, complete games on offense and they were vexed –
as many are – by the triple option.
Can Oregon slow down Florida State? If Winston avoids
turnovers, I don't think they can. Can Florida State slow down Oregon? I think
they can. That's the difference. Oregon can get into a rut just as Florida
State can and it's tougher for them to get out of it because so much is based
on tempo.
It would not surprise me if this game felt a lot like last
year's BCS Title Game, with Florida State doing enough at the end to pull it
out.
Alabama (-9.5) over
Ohio State
Alabama is
the best team in the country and I'm starting to think they're the best
team in the country by a significant margin.
If there is a team that can give Alabama trouble, though,
it's this Ohio State team – if J.T. Barrett was playing. Cardale Jones is a
better throw and he's a big dude, but he lacks the running ability of Barrett.
We've seen time and time again over the past few years that a running
quarterback is the Tide's Achilles heel. It feels like this is too tall a task
for Ohio State, especially since I do not trust their defense to keep Amari
Cooper and T.J. Yeldon in check.
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