Are there too many bowls?
This is a question that gets asked a lot in December. The
answer, if you're a college football fan, is no. How could it be yes? We are in
the final stretch of the season. Once these games are over, there is no more
college football for eight long, long months.
The bowl system is perfect American capitalism. When there
are too many bowls, the market reacts accordingly and bowls die. Remember the Silicon
Valley Football Classic? Or the International Bowl?
Some games don't work. Some do.
I never understood why people get mad that these student
athletes get to play another game in a (usually) warm city over the holidays.
For so many seniors, their football-playing career ends with a bowl game. Why
take that away from them?
Sure, 6-6 Miami versus 6-6 South Carolina in Shreveport
doesn't sound like a great time. But it means something to someone. ESPN isn't
airing the game on ABC due to benevolence – they're airing then because people
will watch it.
People like me. I love bowls. Are there too many? Nah, there
aren't enough.
Cincinnati (-3) over
Virginia Tech
Was there a more mediocre team in the second half of the
year than Virginia Tech? Was any more result in the past decade more
head-scratching than Virginia Tech's over Ohio State? Seriously, I cannot think
of a recent national title contender that has a stranger loss.
On the other side, Cincinnati proved it could score on
absolutely anybody and proved down the stretch that the defense could do just
enough to let them win. They held on to win crazy games against East Carolina
and Houston to finish
as co-champions of the AAC. I don't see Virginia Tech scoring enough points
to keep up.
Arizona State (-7.5)
over Duke
As long as Arizona State doesn't spend the night before
partying in El Paso, they will win this game by two touchdowns. Of course, I
would be deathly afraid of making this pick in Vegas because teams have a funny
way of getting run over in the Sun Bowl. Seriously, the game almost never makes
sense or features one team – see USF, 2007 or USC, 2012 – that play the game
like they are hungover. Because they are hungover.
Arizona State is a superior team in almost every possible
way to Duke. As long as they can pass a breathalyzer on their way to the field,
they will win.
Miami (-3) over South
Carolina
Ah, a good ol' battle of who could care less. I'm taking
Miami because the recent vote
of confidence to Al Golden shows the administration is going to give him at
least one more year to finally drag Miami out from the Nevin Shapiro scandal.
As for South Carolina, they suffered through their most embarrassing
season in about a decade. In 2005, the Gamecocks brought about 10,000 fans with
them for a really fun Independence Bowl against Missouri. This year, their
ticket sales will likely stay
in triple digits. They have little to play for. Even if they did, I don't
know how they could stop Duke Johnson.
There will be a ton of Penn State fans at Yankee Stadium as
they play their first bowl game since the 2011 season. However, Boston College
is just
as excited to play a bowl game where their fans may actually show up.
Remember, for the past decade, BC has been sent to Boise and Detroit and
Shreveport – all because of the dreaded “fans don't travel” label. There will
be a decent amount of BC fans in attendance at Yankee Stadium and, come on,
Boston fans in Yankee Stadium...do I need to explain the added motivation?
Also, Boston College is a much better team. So there’s that.
USC (-7) over
Nebraska
As with the Sun Bowl, the Pac-12 team is vastly superior. While
you may think USC would be unmotivated by playing an inferior opponent so close
to home, I think the novelty of playing in the Holiday Bowl for the first time
and the desire to make a national statement will overcome that.
This game is an 8pm kick on ESPN on the Saturday after
Christmas – it will do tremendous ratings and USC teams tend to play best when
the lights are brightest. Nebraska? They want it to
be 2015.
Texas A&M (+3.5)
over West Virginia
This is a perfect game for Texas A&M. They finally leave
the SEC West and play a team without a defense. When Texas A&M has played
teams without a defense – think South Carolina in week 1 or the road win at
Auburn – the results have been very, very good. Texas A&M can outscore
anybody. West Virginia can score as well, but they can't score as much as Texas
A&M.
Clemson (+3) over
Oklahoma
I'm going with Clemson as a hat tip to Dabo Sweeney. The
past two years, he knocked off top 10 opponents as an underdog – LSU in the
2012 Peach Bowl and Ohio State in last year's Orange Bowl. Since the Orange
Bowl fiasco to West Virginia, you can tell Dabo has put added emphasis on
winning bowl games. The injury to DeShaun Watson has many throwing in the towel
on Clemson but that is so unfair to a Tigers team that is legit Top 20.
Do you trust Oklahoma in a big spot? I don't. I don't care
if Trevor Knight is back. I've been burned way too many times this year backing
the Sooners.
Look, I know Arkansas won back-to-back games against Ole
Miss and LSU. But are they the most overrated 6-6 team in history? People were
acting like they were Top 25 material at 6-5. If you didn't notice, Arkansas
does not have a passing game.
Texas can stop run. Texas will stop the run. Frankly, I
don't see how either team is going to score in this one, but I'm leaning with
the Longhorns as I believe they will keep it low-score to win, say, a 14-10
game.
Notre Dame (+8) over
LSU
If Notre Dame doesn't turn the ball over, they will win this
game. It's really that simple. LSU has been unimpressive on offense all year
and that may give the Irish's putrid defense a chance. But again, it all comes
down to turnovers.
Georgia (-7) over
Louisville
Georgia, with or without Todd Gurley, is at least a
touchdown better than Louisville. The Cardinals are a decent team but they
simply aren't in the same league as Georgia. You wonder about motivation for
Georgia – but I saw many Louisville fans complaining about getting “stuck” in
this game. I've been
to Charlotte for this game and it's a great city for a bowl. My gut tells
me Georgia fans show up en masse and watch the Bulldogs put forth a big
statement to launch its 2015 season.
Stanford (-14) over
Maryland
I can't think of a worse matchup for Maryland. Teams that
run the ball well – see Wisconsin, Ohio State and Michigan State – destroyed
the Terrapins. This could get really, really ugly if Stanford feels like it.
Houston (+3) over
Pittsburgh
This is a peculiar battle of two teams going through coaching
changes. But while Houston fired its coach and hired
Ohio State OC Tom Herman in one of December's most impressive hires, Pitt
lost its coach for the second time in four years to another Power Five school.
Pitt has to be demoralized. Houston is energized. When you have two relatively
equal teams, that may be all it takes.
Tennessee (-3.5) over
Iowa *Best Bet*
I love Tennessee in this game. Or more aptly, I hate Iowa in
this game. Iowa did not beat a team that finished with a winning record. They
beat only 2 bowl teams, in Illinois and Pittsburgh. They got to 7 wins by
virtue of a soft schedule.
While you can make a similar argument for Tennessee, there
is little doubt they played tougher competition better – close losses to
Georgia, Florida and Missouri showed how close they were to an 8- or 9-win
season.
Tennessee played a ridiculous amount of underclassmen. With
the benefit of a whole season and 15 practices, I expect Tennessee to be
sitting on a huge performance.
Oklahoma State (+5.5)
over Washington
Didn't Bedlam feel like a revival for Oklahoma State? I know
this violates my rule of paying too much attention to momentum but there was so
much negativity leading into that game, with the prospect of missing a bowl and
Mike Gundy's name being thrown around
for every job. What happened? They won a stunner over their archrival and
Mike Gundy re-committed to Oklahoma State.
The Cowboys were decimated by injuries and that took away
from what could have been a decent season. They will end in impressive fashion
while Washington has been fairly unimpressive all year. It feels like Year 2 is
when Chris Petersen will get things rolling in Seattle.
East Carolina (+7.5)
over Florida
I don't know. I really don't know. East Carolina has been a
bizarre team all year, blowing at least two games – Cincinnati and UCF – they
should have won. They gave away games to South Carolina and Temple – the former
excusable, the latter not – due to turnovers. But they can score a ton of
points. They also seem to suffer from what was “USF disease” in the late 2000's
in that they get amped for big
non-conference games and totally ignore conference games.
I don't know what to make of Florida. I get the sense the
Florida State game was their bowl game and this is just playing out the string.
Toledo (-3) over
Arkansas State
Toledo is a better team than Arkansas State. Sometimes bowl
games can be simple: pick the better team.
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