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The bowl game is the most unique form of postseason in American sports. Yes, there are many that would rather see a playoff. But in the absence of a playoff, college football delivers two-plus weeks of postseason games across the country. It is utterly fascinating and I love everything about it.
The bowl game is the most unique form of postseason in American sports. Yes, there are many that would rather see a playoff. But in the absence of a playoff, college football delivers two-plus weeks of postseason games across the country. It is utterly fascinating and I love everything about it.
However, one of the bowl season's best qualities is that
picking games is nearly impossible. There are a million variables that create
head-scratching results. What's important? What's not important?
Attendance means nothing
There is a lot made about whether a team can travel or if
the fan base is excited about a particular bowl game. This is important to bowl
directors, conference commissioners and the bottom lines for rich folks. It
means absolutely nothing to the players and the coaches. As an example,
Michigan State is having trouble
unloading Cotton Bowl tickets since something like 60,000 MSU fans were in
Pasadena last year. Do you think Mark Dantonio or the players care? They want
to beat Baylor, period.
Motivation is different for everyone
“Does a team want to be here?” That is the most asked
question from football analysts in early December and if you can correctly
answer it, you may steal a few winners. But don't forget that motivation
constitutes different goals for different teams. Just because a team got passed
over for a better bowl or had a disappointing season doesn't mean they have nothing
to play for. A good coach can motivate his players for any game.
Coaching transitions are usually a black flag – but not
always
Last year, playing for an interim head coach, Washington
came out like a team possessed and absolutely annihilated BYU in a very surprising
result. USC, playing for its third coach of the 2013 season, played an
inspiring game in the Las Vegas Bowl – a game seemingly beneath them – and laid
waste to Fresno State. An interim coach is bad news 70% of the time, but in
that other 30%, it can be a very positive factor.
Forget conference affiliation
The bowl results are important for relative conference
strength. Individual games, however, are not an indication. A good team can
come from a bad conference and an overrated team can come from a good
conference. The Big Ten is a Vegas underdog in every
single one of their bowl games. Do you really think they're going 0-10?
There's no such thing as momentum
The bowl games are essentially a different season. Coaches
have 15 practices to work young players and the final games of the season are
way in the rear-view mirror by bowl time. Don't pick a team just because they
won their last two or three games.
Coaching means that much more
Everything we've discussed above is really a long-winded way
of saying coaching really, really matters. If you are confident in a coach,
then back him and go for it. In last year's BCS, Bob Stoops, Dabo Swinney and
Mark Dantonio came away with wins because they had their teams ready to play and they had specific schemes that
exploited the weaknesses of opponents. In all 3 games, the less talented and
less heralded team won. It didn’t have anything to do with motivation or desire
(sorry
Alabama) but one team executing a better game plan.
Never underestimate senior leadership
While much is made of how bowls are springboards for next
season, they are also the final games for many players. Many will never play
football competitively again in their lives. Regardless of coaching changes,
fan travel or achievable goals: these players do not want to lose their last
game. Never forget that.
Regular Season
Record: 79-88-1
Best Bet: 6-9
Upset Special: 7-7-1
Best Bet: 6-9
Upset Special: 7-7-1
So...my quest to
finish .500 ended in horrific fashion, with a 2-9 showing on
Championship Weekend. If you read my rules for picking bowl winners, maybe
you should just do the opposite of these pics?
Louisiana-Lafayette
(-1) over Nevada
This game kicks off at 11 am ET, which is 10am in New
Orleans and 8am in Nevada. Will the Nevada players get adjusted in time?
Furthermore, this is La-Lafayette’s annual home bowl game – it is their fourth
straight trip to the New Orleans Bowl. They have won the last three in front of
huge crowds, culminating in more than 54,000 for last year’s game versus
Tulane.
The fans, understandably, have been suffering from fatigue
and “only” 11,000 may
make the trip. That doesn’t matter. This is the Ragin’ Cajuns’ Super Bowl
and they will treat it as such. Save for one misstep against Appalachian State,
they were superior to its Sun Belt competition all year long. They will win
their fourth-straight New Orleans Bowl.
Utah State (-10.5)
over UTEP
Utah State’s Matt Wells is my favorite young coach in the
country. I am shocked a bigger program hasn’t nabbed him yet. Utah State was
down to their fourth-string QB by the Boise State season finale yet was still
playing for a Mountain West Mountain division title. They have quality wins
over Air Force and BYU and are simply a far superior team. Utah State is not
the type of program that can overlook bowl games and ESPN exposure – they will
be making a statement.
Colorado State (+4.5)
over Utah
Jim McElwain just left for Florida. Utah has sold out its
ticket allotment while Colorado
State is struggling. Utah is a ranked Pac-12 team. Colorado State is an
unranked Mountain West team. It feels like Utah should win easy, right?
Wrong. Colorado State was probably the best Group of Five
team for most of October and November. Their loss to Air Force clouded things,
but losing to an option team is never cause for great concern – it’s an anomaly.
Colorado State has a ton to play for and I would expect them to put forth a huge
effort despite losing their coach. Also, I’ve been going against Utah all year
long and I’m not changing now.
Air Force (+1) over
Western Michigan *Best Bet*
I must be missing something because this line makes no
sense. Air Force is a superior team, with wins over Boise State, Navy and
Colorado State – three wins better than anything Western Michigan has. Maybe
Air Force isn’t thrilled about a bowl game in Boise? They will show up.
South Alabama (-3)
over Bowling Green
I’m making this pick because I think Bowling Green stinks. I
watched them get obliterated in their last two games by Ball State and Northern
Illinois, while South Alabama nearly beat Navy and is playing in their first
bowl game ever.
I really wish this game had a better time slot, because a
game this good should not kick off at 2 p.m. on a random Monday. Now, I’ll be
off and watching it…but more people should.
As for the game itself, this feels like a total toss-up but
I’m leaning to Memphis because they were so dominant for the last two months of
the season. BYU was a different team when Taysom Hill went out and they righted
the ship only when the schedule got real, real easy.
Northern Illinois
(+10) over Marshall *Upset Special*
Northern Illinois crushed
the spread in their last two games and I was right there to enjoy it.
Absolutely no reason to jump ship now, especially with this disrespectful
spread – NIU is a better team than Marshall.
San Diego State
(-2.5) over Navy
So many reasons to like SDSU here. For starters, they played
two option teams – New Mexico and Air Force – and shut both of them down.
Secondly, it is a literal home game. Third, Navy has not lived up to preseason
expectations and looked far from imposing in close wins over South Alabama and
Army. Feels like this could be an easy Aztec victory.
Central Michigan (+3)
over Western Kentucky
I liked
the video of Central Michigan discovering they were headed to the Bahamas.
Also, I just like picking all the bowl games.
Fresno State (+1.5)
over Rice
Rice gave up 76 points in its last game to Louisiana Tech.
This pick isn’t about momentum, it’s about the fact Rice is a bad football
team. Fresno, at 6-7, is not exactly a world-beater. But of their 7 losses,
four were to currently ranked teams and a fifth was to Nebraska. And they gave
Boise a decent game twice in two trips to the Smurf Turf. They also have a
great coach and I feel they will have extra motivation to make up for their face
plant in the 2013 Las Vegas Bowl.
Illinois (+6) over Louisiana
Tech
I am fully aware that this game will take place in a
half-empty (at best) Cotton Bowl the day after Christmas. But isn’t Illinois
uniquely prepared to play in front of 50,000 empty seats? Rim shot!
Seriously – Illinois is not a touchdown worse than Louisiana Tech. Beating Penn State and Northwestern may not mean much to many but it was hugely impressive for Illinois. They also beat Minnesota, which is an order of magnitude better than any win Louisiana Tech has. When in doubt, always pick against Skip Holtz.
Rutgers (+3) over
North Carolina
I hate North Carolina because they made no sense all year.
Yes, I picked
them to win the ACC and they made me look foolish. They went from
destroying Duke to getting destroyed by North Carolina State and that pretty
much sums up their season.
As for Rutgers, I believe they are ready to make people like
me eat their words. They pulled off a stunner to end the season over Maryland
yet still got shipped to Detroit while the Terps get Stanford in California. I
think the Knights want to stick it to the Big Ten and show why they are above
getting stuck in Detroit.
UCF (-2) over North
Carolina State
UCF’s season-finale against East Carolina was a nice microcosm
of their season – they were the better team, almost blew it and yet still
pulled it out. This is another virtual home game and you know AAC teams – all
of them – enjoy playing and beating Power Five teams. It may be tight but
UCF will pull it out late.
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