“We should have an 8-team playoff!”
That has been a common refrain over the past month, from ACC
commissioner John
Swofford to Baylor officials, as it appears their schools may get squeezed
from a four-team playoff. It is the infamous “bracket creep” that the BCS tried
to warn us about. It was inevitable. For two years, I’ve been beating the drum
that a four-team playoff was
unsustainable for that exact reason.
There is little doubt the four-team playoff has added more
juice to the regular season. Yes, it matters even more because we pay attention
to results and strength of schedule instead of perceptions. I do think there
are kinks – the Big 12 needs
a title game and the semifinals cannot both be
played on New Year’s Eve next year.
But an 8-team playoff solves zero problems while creating a
mountain more of them. I am not going to lose any sleep if a 1-loss Ohio State
team that lost at home to 6-6 Virginia Tech doesn’t play for a national title.
Likewise, Baylor has no one to blame but themselves for their putrid
non-conference slate.
College football can either stay at a four-team playoff or
move to a full-blown 16-team
playoff, with home games for conference champions and auto berths for the
Group of Five.
Why would fans respond to an 8-team playoff? Look at this
week’s game. The top 7 are all in action and, with the exceptions of TCU, are
playing teams ranked 16th or better. The Pac-12 title game, between #2 and #7,
is quite literally a quarterfinal game.
This season has, to this point, been a three-month-long
reason to embrace the four-team playoff. So it is in true college football
fashion that the powers at be wanted to mess it all up.
Overall Record: 76-80-1
Best Bet: 6-8
Upset Special: 7-6-1
Best Bet: 6-8
Upset Special: 7-6-1
A hat tip to my
favorite team of the year, Minnesota, as the Gophers covered two
weeks
in a row as massive underdogs. I look forward to backing Jerry Kill and company
as a 16-point underdog to Georgia in the Outback Bowl on New Year’s Day.
EAST CAROLINA (-7)
over Ucf
What happens if Boise State loses? That is the great unanswered
question going into this weekend. I mean, Boise State won’t lose, but what if
they do? The AAC champion has to be next
in line, right? Could that be UCF, despite a loss to UConn? Or Memphis,
despite a loss to Houston? Or could that be Cincinnati, whose three losses were
by a lot but to good teams?
My guess is Memphis but you never know. East Carolina was
the front-runner until a meltdown in the rain against Temple and a wacky loss
to Cincinnati ruined their season. My gut tells me that East Carolina will
enjoy the ESPN spotlight and produce a big victory to build momentum for a
likely Military
Bowl game against another ACC team.
Northern Illinois
(-6.5) over Bowling Green
It has truly been a pleasure to follow Northern Illinois for
the past two years, from ESPN announcers hating on them last year and no one
giving them an ounce of respect this year. They are back for their fifth MAC
Title Game in a row and they get to play the same team that prevented them from
playing in a BCS bowl last year. Can you say, revenge game?
Arizona (+14) over
Oregon
I’m not picking Oregon over Arizona. I did last year, I was
wrong. I did earlier this year, I was wrong. There is no rational explanation as
to why Arizona owns Oregon but they apparently do. Oregon could win
by 50 and that’s fine – I’m not picking Oregon over Arizona again.
Iowa State (+33.5)
over TCU
It just feels like too many points. Despite a couple of face
plants against Oklahoma and Kansas (huh?), the Cyclones have been feisty and
competitive. Remember, they beat Iowa at Iowa and probably should have beaten
Kansas State. They were within a field goal of West Virginia after three
quarters last week.
Is Iowa State going to win? No. But they will play hard and
try to keep it respectable.
MARSHALL (-12) over Louisiana
Tech
I would not want to be Skip Holtz this week. Even though La.
Tech destroyed Rice 76-31 to earn a spot in the Conference USA title game,
there is nothing good about what will happen Saturday.
Marshall choked away its New Year’s Six bowl berth and an undefeated season to Western Kentucky on Friday. So the Herd can either pack it in or take out their frustrations on the next opponent. Since Rakeem Cato is a senior and since the game is in Huntington, I’m going with the latter. I think Marshall scores early, often, and then some more. Thanks to the loss last week, this spread is about 10 points below where it needs to be.
CINCINNATI (-6.5)
over Houston
On Tuesday night, Tommy Tuberville told the crowd at a
Cincinnati basketball game that he will buy
them all 2 tickets to this game to watch Cincinnati go for the AAC title.
How cool is that? It shows that Tuberville still has his team motivated to
produce a second-straight 9-win season and share the AAC title with Memphis and
possibly UCF.
It won’t be easy. Houston regressed this year but still beat
Memphis in Memphis in a game that will likely keep the AAC champion out of a
New Year’s Six bowl. But following three straight bad losses to Ohio State,
Memphis and Miami, Cincinnati has reeled off six wins in a row and the defense
has finally decided to, ya know, start playing defense.
This probably isn’t the season Cincinnati envisioned in
August but 9-3 and building momentum for 2015 is nothing to sneeze at.
OKLAHOMA (-20) over
Oklahoma State *Best Bet*
Oklahoma State has thrown in the towel on the season. The scores
of their last five losses: 42-9, 34-10, 48-14, 28-7 and 49-28. They haven’t
covered a 20-point spread in any of them. Mike Gundy has been bandied about for
seemingly every open job as his apparent unhappiness with Oklahoma State
higher-ups has become very, very public.
It’s not like Oklahoma is a great team this year – I got at
least one preseason prediction right – but they will be spending the holidays
playing either UCLA in San Antonio or Clemson in Orlando. Either game will be
one of the bowl season’s biggest. The Sooners merely need to show up to cover
this spread and, with the game in Norman, I believe they will.
Missouri (+14.5) over
Alabama *Upset Special*
Why not? One of the top 4 is losing this weekend. It won’t
be TCU. It won’t be Florida State. And it’s no fun if Oregon does, because
Arizona would simply take their place. So why not Missouri?
Missouri even has decent reasons for both of its losses.
Against Indiana – a game that I think only I watched – Missouri put forth a D-
effort. It was disgusting. In horse racing terms, it was a toss-out. Their
other loss was getting smashed by Georgia in the Todd Gurley game – no one was
beating Georgia the week Gurley got suspended.
Missouri is a better team than people think and Alabama is
absolutely vulnerable. The Crimson Tide has played away from Tuscaloosa five
times. They lost to Ole Miss, went to overtime with LSU, won by 1 over Arkansas
and was in a one-score game with West Virginia in the fourth quarter. Only a
win over 6-6 Tennessee was easy for them away from home.
Missouri is going to win this football game and all heck is
going to break loose.
Florida State (-4.5)
over Georgia Tech
Come on, the Florida State saga is not ending in a
half-filled stadium in Charlotte. There is no way we are being deprived of
Florida State on New Year’s Day. Jameis Winston will play like the best
player in college football for a quarter or two, Florida State will pull
out another stupid victory and they will be in the first playoff.
Wisconsin (-4) over
Ohio State
Michigan –
terrible, awful Michigan – ran for 121 yards against Ohio State. The week
prior, Indiana's Tevin Coleman ran
for 228 yards and 3 TDs. The week before that,
Minnesota's David Cobb ran for 145 yards and 3 TDs. That's a bad trend going
into a game against Melvin Gordon.
There is a lot of
talk about Cardale Jones and the Ohio State offense, but I have no worries that
Urban Meyer will figure out a way to score points. I simply do not trust the
Ohio State run defense to stop, or even slow down, Melvin Gordon. It feels like
this will be a repeat of last year’s title game, when Michigan State eventually
wore down the Buckeyes.
And Urban Meyer
can spend the offseason explaining why he still
hasn’t developed a top-flight defense in Columbus.
BOISE STATE (-21)
over Fresno State
Fresno State coach Tim DeRuyter deserves a gold star. His
team lost just about every player of note from last year’s conference champions
and he somehow managed a 6-6 season with a West division crown. Sure, the
Mountain West West was the worst division (by far!) in college
football. But he got them to reel off three straight wins and into this game.
Unfortunately, they have only beaten one team with a winning record – San Diego
State – all season.
The Bulldogs gave Boise a game in mid-October, but Boise
State has turned into an absolute monster since then. They have scored 55, 60,
38, 63 and 50 since then. The game last week against Utah State figured to be
an intense matchup and was over in about 10 minutes of game time. Boise State
is rolling and they will use their CBS showcase to make a final statement
before heading to the Fiesta Bowl as a Top 20 team no one will want to play.
Sorry, Arizona.
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